New Mountain Finance (New Mountain Finance) Predictability Rank

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What is New Mountain Finance Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

New Mountain Finance Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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New Mountain Finance (New Mountain Finance) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » New Mountain Finance Corp (NAS:NMFC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1N4:Germany

Address

1633 Broadway, 48th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10019

Website

https://www.newmountainfinance.com

New Mountain Finance Corp is a closed-end, non-diversified management investment company. It invests in equity interests such as preferred stock, common stock, warrants, or options received in connection with debt investments or may include direct investment in the equity of private companies. The company's investment objective is to generate current income and capital appreciation through the sourcing and origination of debt securities at all levels of the capital structure, including first and second-lien debt, notes, bonds, and mezzanine securities.

Executives

Robert Hamwee	officer: CEO & President	C/O NEW MOUNTAIN FINANCE CORPORATION, 787 7TH AVENUE, 48TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Barbara Daniel	director	1633 BROADWAY, 48TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Laura Holson Boswerger	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1633 BROADWAY, 48TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Steven B Klinsky	director	C/O NEW MOUNTAIN CAPITAL, L.L.C., 1633 BROADWAY, 48TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Arnold Rome G. Iii	director	24 GRAMERCY PARK SOUTH, NEW YORK NY 10003
James Stone	officer: Section 16 Officer	C/O NEW MOUNTAIN FINANCE CORPORATION, 787 7TH AVENUE, 48TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Adam Weinstein	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O NEW MOUNTAIN FINANCE CORPORATION, 787 7TH AVENUE, 48TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
David Ogens	director	C/O NEW MOUNTAIN FINANCE CORPORATION, 787 7TH AVENUE, 48TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Joseph Hartswell	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	599 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Shiraz Kajee	officer: CFO & Treasurer	500 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Alice Handy	director	C/O MSCI, INC., 88 PINE STREET, NEW YORK NY 10005
John Kline	officer: Section 16 Officer	C/O NEW MOUNTAIN FINANCE CORPORATION, 787 7TH AVENUE, 48TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Karrie J. Jerry	officer: CCO and Corporate Secretary	C/O NEW MOUNTAIN FINANCE CORPORATION, 787 SEVENTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10019
Daniel B Hebert	director	TRI-ARTISAN PARTNERS, 590 MADISON AVENUE, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Kurt Wolfgruber	director	C/O NEW MOUNTAIN FINANCE CORPORATION, 787 7TH AVENUE, 48TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019