MaxLinear (MaxLinear) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2010. Start your Free Trial

What is MaxLinear Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MaxLinear Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

MaxLinear Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of MaxLinear's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

MaxLinear (MaxLinear) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » MaxLinear Inc (NAS:MXL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

JMX:Germany

Address

5966 La Place Court, Suite 100, Carlsbad, CA, USA, 92008

Website

https://www.maxlinear.com

MaxLinear Inc is a provider of radio frequency and mixed-signal integrated circuits for cable and satellite broadband communications, the connected home, and for data center, metro, and long-haul fiber networks. The company's radio frequency receiver products capture and process digital and analog broadband signals to be decoded for various applications. MaxLinear's product options include both radio frequency receivers and radio frequency receiver systems-on-chips. The company's products enable the distribution and display of broadband video and data content in a wide range of electronic devices. Customers for MaxLinear include original equipment manufacturers, module makers, and original design manufacturers.

Executives

James Lougheed	officer: VP, Component Products	48720 KATO ROAD, FREMONT CA 94538
Michael Bollesen	officer: Vice President of Sales	C/O MAXLINEAR, INC., 5966 LA PLACE COURT, SUITE 100, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Michelle Marie Sayer	officer: General Counsel	C/O MAXLINEAR, INC., 5966 LA PLACE COURT, SUITE 100, CARLSBAD CA 92008
William Torgerson	officer: Vice President, Global Sales	2051 PALOMAR AIRPORT ROAD, SUITE 100, CARLSBAD CA 92011
Daniel A Artusi	director	5966 LA PLACE COURT, SUITE 100, CARLSBAD CA 92008
William Kelly Jones	officer: VP of Worldwide Operations	C/O MAXLINEAR, INC., 5966 LAPLACE COURT, SUITE 100, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Kishore Seendripu	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	5966 LA PLACE COURT, SUITE 100, CARLSBAD CA 92011
Steven G Litchfield	officer: See remarks	C/O MAXLINEAR, INC., 5966 LA PLACE COURT, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92008
Brendan Walsh	officer: VP, Business Development	2051 PALOMAR AIRPORT RD, SUITE 100, CARLSBAD CA 92011
Curtis Ling	director, officer: Chief Technical Officer	2051 PALOMAR AIRPORT RD, SUITE 100, CARLSBAD CA 92011
Kwong Connie H.	officer: Corporate Controller & PAO	C/O MAXLINEAR, INC., 5966 LA PLACE COURT, SUITE 100, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Donald E Schrock	director	C/O INTEGRATED DEVICE TECHNOLOGY, INC., 6024 SILVER CREEK VALLEY ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95138
Tsu-jae King Liu	director	2200 MISSION COLLEGE BLVD, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Madhukar Reddy	officer: VP, ICs and RF Systems Enginee	2051 PALOMAR AIRPORT RD, SUITE 100, CARLSBAD CA 92011
Greg Dougherty	director	40919 ENCYCLOPEDIA CIRCLE, FREMONT CA 94538