Vail Resorts (Vail Resorts) Predictability Rank

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What is Vail Resorts Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vail Resorts Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vail Resorts (Vail Resorts) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Vail Resorts Inc (NYSE:MTN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MTN:Mexico VAI:Germany VAI:Germany

Address

390 Interlocken Crescent, Broomfield, CO, USA, 80021

Website

https://www.vailresorts.com

Vail Resorts Inc Bhd is a resorts and casinos company that operates mountain resorts and ski areas. The company has three business segments that include Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates numerous ski resort properties that offer a variety of winter and summer activities, such as skiing, snowboarding, snowshoeing, hiking, and mountain biking. The Lodging segment owns and operates hotels and condominiums. The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and leases real estate, typically near its other properties. The company generates the vast majority of its revenue within the United States.

Executives

Hilary Schneider	director	C/O LIFELOCK, INC., 60 EAST RIO SALADO PARKWAY, SUITE 400, TEMPE AZ 85281
William Rock	officer: President, Mountain Division	C/O VAIL RESORTS, INC., 390 INTERLOCKEN CRESCENT, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Angela A Korch	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O VAIL RESORTS, INC., 390 INTERLOCKEN CRESCENT, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Michael Z Barkin	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	390 INTERLOCKEN CRESCENT, SUITE 1000, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
John F Sorte	director	VAIL RESORTS INC, PO BOX 7, VAIL CO 89658
Robert A Katz	director, officer: Chief Exec.Officer & Chairman	C/O VAIL RESORTS, INC., 390 INTERLOCKEN CRESCENT, SUITE 1000, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Ryan Bennett	officer: SVP & Chief Marketing Officer	390 INTERLOCKEN CRESCENT, SUITE 1000, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Nathan Mark Gronberg	officer: VP, Controller & CAO	390 INTERLOCKEN CRESCENT, SUITE 1000, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Peter A Vaughn	director	390 INTERLOCKEN CRESCENT, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
James C. O'donnell	officer: EVP, Hospitality, Retail & RE	390 INTERLOCKEN CRESCENT, SUITE 1000, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
David T Shapiro	officer: EVP, General Counsel & Sec.	601 HAWAII ST., EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Kirsten A. Lynch	officer: EVP & Chief Marketing Officer	390 INTERLOCKEN CRESCENT, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Gregory Jon Sullivan	officer: SVP, Retail & Hospitality	390 INTERLOCKEN CRESCENT, SUITE 1000, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Patricia A Campbell	officer: President-Mountain Division	390 INTERLOCKEN CRESCENT, SUITE 1000, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Ryan H Siurek	officer: VP, Controller & CAO	6200 SPRINT PARKWAY, OVERLAND PARK KS 66251