Madison Square Garden Sports (Madison Square Garden Sports) Predictability Rank

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What is Madison Square Garden Sports Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Madison Square Garden Sports Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Madison Square Garden Sports (Madison Square Garden Sports) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (NYSE:MSGS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MS8:Germany

Address

Two Penn Plaza, New York, NY, USA, 10121

Website

https://www.msgsports.com

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp is engaged in live sports and entertainment business. The Company's reportable segment: MSG Entertainment consists of live entertainment events, including concerts and other live events, such as family shows, performing arts and special events.

Executives

David Granville-smith	officer: Executive Vice President	TWO PENNSYLVANIA PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10121
David G. Hopkinson	officer: President & COO	C/O TILRAY, INC., 655 MADISON AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10065
Jamaal T Lesane	officer: EVP and General Counsel	TWO PENNSYLVANIA PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10121
Quentin F Dolan	director	11 PENNSYLVANIA PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10001
Joseph Cohen	director	TWO PENNSYLVANIA PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10121
Dolan Leinauer Corby	other: Trustee of 13D Group Member	BAKER BOTTS L.L.P., 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112
Lawrence J. Burian	officer: EVP, GC and Secretary	TWO PENN PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10121
Alexander Shvartsman	officer: SVP, Controller & PAO	TWO PENNSYLVANIA PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10121
Stephen Mills	director	TWO PENNSYLVANIA PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10121
Ivan G Seidenberg	director	VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC, 140 WEST STREET, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10007
Anthony J Vinciquerra	director	FOX ENTERTAINMENT GROUP, INC., 10201 WEST PICO BLVD, LOS ANGELES CA 90035
Philip Gerard D'ambrosio	officer: SVP, Treasurer	TWO PENNSYLVANIA PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10121
Richard D Parsons	director	TWO PENNSYLVANIA PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10121
Andrew Lustgarten	officer: President	TWO PENN PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10121
Charles F. Dolan 2019 Grantor Retained Annuity Trust #1m	other: Member of 13D Group	C/O DOLAN FAMILY OFFICE, 340 CROSSWAYS PARK DRIVE, WOODBURY NY 11797