What is Mersana Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Mersana Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Mersana Therapeutics (Mersana Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
840 Memorial Drive, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02139
Mersana Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company using its differentiated and proprietary ADC platforms to develop targeted drugs with increased tolerability and expanded opportunities to deliver meaningful clinical benefits to patients. The Company's early stage programs include XMT-1660, a Dolasynthen ADC targeting B7-H4, as well as XMT-2056, a STING agonist ADC developed using the Company's Immunosynthen platform and targeting a novel epitope of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2. The Company also has two earlier stage preclinical candidates, XMT-2068 and XMT-2175, both of which leverage the Company's Immunosynthen platform and target tumor-associated antigens.
Executives
| Anna Protopapas |
director, officer: President and CEO |
MILLENNIUM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 40 LANDSDOWNE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Mohan Bala |
officer: SVP, Chief Development Officer |
C/O MERSANA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Tushar Misra |
officer: Chief Manufacturing Officer |
840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Brian Deschuytner |
officer: Sr. VP, Finance & Product stgy |
840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 01776 |
| Ashish Mandelia |
officer: VP, Controller |
840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Timothy B Lowinger |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Alejandra Carvajal |
officer: Chief Legal Officer |
C/O CERULEAN PHARMA INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, 5TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Ecor1 Capital, Llc |
10 percent owner |
357 TEHAMA STREET #3, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103 |
| Arvin Yang |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Hack Andrew A. F. |
director |
300 THIRD STREET, FIRST FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Michael J. Kaufman |
officer: Sr VP Chmistry, Man & Control |
840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Allene M. Diaz |
director |
C/O ALLENA PHARMACEUTIALS, INC., ONEW NEWTON EXECUTIVE PARK SUITE 202, NEWTON MA 02462 |
| Eva M. Jack |
officer: CBO, Treasurer & Secretary |
840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Lawrence M Alleva |
director |
1000 WINTER STREET, SUITE 3300, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| Scott D Sandell |
10 percent owner |
|
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