The Mosaic Co (The Mosaic Co) Predictability Rank

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What is The Mosaic Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Mosaic Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

The Mosaic Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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The Mosaic Co (The Mosaic Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Agriculture » The Mosaic Co (NYSE:MOS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MOS:Mexico 02M:Germany MOSC34:Brazil

Address

101 East Kennedy Boulevard, Suite 2500, Tampa, FL, USA, 33602

Website

https://www.mosaicco.com

Formed in 2004 by the combination of IMC Global and Cargill's fertilizer business, Mosaic is one of the largest phosphate and potash producers in the world. The company's assets include phosphate rock mines in Florida, Brazil, and Peru and potash mines in Saskatchewan, New Mexico, and Brazil. Mosaic also runs a large fertilizer distribution operation in Brazil through its Mosiac Fertilizantes business, which the company acquired from Vale in 2018.

Executives

Philip Eugene Bauer	officer: Sr. VP, Gen Counsel & Corp Sec	101 EAST KENNEDY BOULEVARD, SUITE 2500, TAMPA FL 33602
Teixeira Joao Roberto Goncalves	director	101 EAST KENNEDY BOULEVARD, SUITE 2500, TAMPA FL 33602
Russell A Flugel	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O THE MOSAIC COMPANY, 101 EAST KENNEDY BLVD., SUITE 2500, TAMPA FL 33602
Denise C Johnson	director	C/O CATERPILLAR, INCORPORATED, 901 WEST WASHINGTON, CV41110, EAST PEORIA IL 61630
Gregory L Ebel	director
Precourt Walter F. Iii	officer: Senior VP - Potash Operations	C/O THE MOSAIC COMPANY, 101 EAST KENNEDY BLVD., SUITE 2500, TAMPA FL 33602
Ricard Corrine D.	officer: Senior VP - Human Resources	C/O THE MOSAIC COMPANY, 101 EAST KENNEDY BLVD., SUITE 2500, TAMPA FL 33602
Mark J. Isaacson	officer: VP, Gen. Counsel & Corp. Sec.	C/O THE MOSAIC COMPANY, 101 EAST KENNEDY BLVD., SUITE 2500, TAMPA FL 33602
James Calvin O'rourke	officer: EVP - Operations	C/O THE MOSAIC COMPANY, 101 EAST KENNEDY BLVD., SUITE 2500, TAMPA FL 33602
Yijun Wang	officer: SVP-Global Strategic Marketing	101 EAST KENNEDY BOULEVARD, SUITE 2500, TAMPA FL 33602
S.a. Vale	director	PRAIA DE BOTAFOGO, 186, RIO DE JANEIRO D5 22250-145
Gretchen H Watkins	director	C/O THE MOSAIC COMPANY, 101 EAST KENNEDY BOULEVARD, SUITE 2500, TAMPA FL 33602
Benjamin James Pratt	officer: SVP - Gov. & Public Affairs	101 EAST KENNEDY BOULEVARD, SUITE 2500, TAMPA FL 33602
Oscar Bernardes	director	39 OLD RIDGEBURY ROAD, DANBURY CT 06810-5113
Luciano Siani Pires	director	C/O THE MOSAIC COMPANY, 101 EAST KENNEDY BLVD., SUITE 2500, TAMPA FL 33602