Monro (MNRO) Predictability Rank

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What is Monro Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Monro Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Monro (MNRO) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Monro Inc (NAS:MNRO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MR2:Germany MR2:Germany

Address

200 Holleder Parkway, Rochester, NY, USA, 14615

Website

https://www.monro.com

Monro Inc is a provider automobile service stations in the United States. Through its network of company-owned service stations, Monro Muffler Brake offers maintenance, repair, tire, and fleet management services for automobiles focused largely on undercar services such as brake, steering, exhaust, drivetrain, and suspension systems. Next to service stores, the company also offers tire stores specialised in tire replacement and service.

Executives

Michael T Broderick	director, officer: CEO & President	26555 NORTHWESTERN HIGHWAY, SOUTHFIELD MI 48033
Hope B Woodhouse	director	1601 UTICA AVENUE, SUITE 900, ST. LOUIS PARK MN 55416
John L Auerbach	director	200 HOLLEDER PARKWAY, ROCHESTER NY 14615
Leah C. Johnson	director	182 NORTH UNION AVENUE, FARMINGTON UT 84025
Stephen C Mccluski	director	80 ARKAY DRIVE, HAUPPAUGE NY 11788
Nicholas P Hawryschuk	officer: Vice President - Finance	200 HOLLEDER PARKWAY, ROCHESTER NY 14615
Matt Henson	officer: Chief Human Resource Officer	200 HOLLEDER PARKWAY, ROCHESTER NY 14615
Peter J Solomon	director	C/O PETER J SOLOMON COMPANY, 520 MADISON AVENUE, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Brian D Odonnell	officer: SVP - Training	200 HOLLEDER PARKWAY, ROCHESTER NY 14615
Robert E Mellor	director	SEVEN MADRONE AVE, KENTFIELD CA 94904
Robert Rajkowski	officer: COO	200 HOLLEDER PARKWAY, ROCHESTER NY 14615
Donna Maxwell	officer: CHRO	200 HOLLEDER PARKWAY, ROCHESTER NY 14615
Donald Glickman	director	535 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Maureen Mulholland	officer: Senior VP, General Counsel	C/O MONRO, INC., 200 HOLLEDER PARKWAY, ROCHESTER NY 14615
Raymond L Pickens	officer: Divisional Vice President	6606 SWEET AIR LANE, ELDERSBURG MD 21784