MongoDB (MongoDB) Predictability Rank

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What is MongoDB Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MongoDB Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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MongoDB (MongoDB) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » MongoDB Inc (NAS:MDB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MDB:Mexico 526:Germany 526:Germany M1DB34:Brazil

Address

1633 Broadway, 38th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10019

Website

https://www.mongodb.com

Founded in 2007, MongoDB is a document-oriented database with nearly 33,000 paying customers and well past 1.5 million free users. MongoDB provides both licenses as well as subscriptions as a service for its NoSQL database. MongoDB's database is compatible with all major programming languages and is capable of being deployed for a variety of use cases.

Executives

Cedric Pech	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O MONGODB, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Dwight A Merriman	director	C/O MONGODB, INC., 229 WEST 43RD STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Hope F Cochran	director	C/O HASBRO, INC., 1011 NEWPORT AVENUE, PAWTUCKET RI 02861
Dev Ittycheria	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O MONGO DB, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Michael Lawrence Gordon	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MONGODB, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Thomas Bull	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O MONGODB, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Mark Porter	director	C/O MONGODB, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Archana Agrawal	director	C/O MONGODB, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Hazard Charles M Jr	director, 10 percent owner	136 SUDBURY ROAD, WESTON MA 02493
John Dennis Mcmahon	director	C/O BLADELOGIC, INC., 10 MAGUIRE STREET, BUILDING 3, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Eliot Horowitz	director, officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O MONGODB, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Francisco Dsouza	director	500 GLENPOINTE CENTRE W, TEANECK NJ 07666
Kevin P Ryan	director	C/O MONGODB, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Meagen Eisenberg	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O MONGO DB, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Whale Rock Capital Management Llc	10 percent owner	2 INTERNATIONAL PLACE, 24TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110