Lamb Weston Holdings (Lamb Weston Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Lamb Weston Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lamb Weston Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lamb Weston Holdings (Lamb Weston Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (NYSE:LW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0L5:Germany 0L5:Germany L1WH34:Brazil

Address

599 S. Rivershore Lane, Eagle, ID, USA, 83616

Website

https://www.lambweston.com

Lamb Weston is North America's largest and the world's second-largest producer of branded and private-label frozen potato products, both by volume and value. The company's portfolio is anchored by French fries, but it also sells sweet potato fries, tater tots, diced potatoes, mashed potatoes, hash browns, and chips. Nearly 70% of revenue comes from its home market of North America, with none of the other 100 countries the company sells into representing a significant share. McDonald's is Lamb Weston's single largest customer at 13% of fiscal 2023 sales, with no other company representing more than 10%. Lamb Weston became an independent company in 2016 when it was spun off from Conagra.

Executives

William G Jurgensen	director
Eryk J Spytek	officer: See Remarks	599 S. RIVERSHORE LANE, EAGLE ID 83616
Rita Fisher	director	1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Sukshma Rajagopalan	officer: Chief Info and Digital Officer	C/O LAMB WESTON HOLDINGS, INC., 599 S. RIVERSHORE LANE, EAGLE ID 83616
Marc Schroeder	officer: President, International	C/O LAMB WESTON HOLDINGS, INC., 599 S. RIVERSHORE LANE, EAGLE ID 83616
Sharon L. Miller	officer: Senior Vice President	599 S. RIVERSHORE LANE, EAGLE ID 83616
Gregory W Jones	officer: Vice President and Controller	C/O LAMB WESTON HOLDINGS, INC., 599 S. RIVERSHORE LANE, EAGLE ID 83616
Bernadette M Madarieta	officer: Vice President and Controller	599 S. RIVERSHORE LANE, EAGLE ID 83616
Michael Jared Smith	officer: SVP, Growth & Strategy	599 S. RIVERSHORE LANE, EAGLE ID 83616
Gerardo Scheufler	officer: SVP, Chief Supply Chain Off	C/O LAMB WESTON HOLDINGS, INC., 599 S. RIVERSHORE LANE, EAGLE ID 83616
Steven J Younes	officer: CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER	C/O LAMB WESTON HOLDINGS, INC., 599 S. RIVERSHORE LANE, EAGLE ID 83616
John C Hatto	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O LAMB WESTON HOLDINGS, INC., 599 S. RIVERSHORE LANE, EAGLE ID 83616
Robert A Niblock	director	1605 CURTIS BRIDGE ROAD, WILKESBORO NC 28697
Peter J Bensen	director	MCDONALD'S CORPORATION, 2915 JORIE BOULEVARD, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Thomas P. Werner	director, officer: President	C/O LAMB WESTON HOLDINGS, INC., 599 S. RIVERSHORE LANE, EAGLE ID 83616