What is Liberty SiriusXM Group Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Liberty SiriusXM Group Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Liberty SiriusXM Group (Liberty SiriusXM Group) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
12300 Liberty Boulevard, Englewood, CO, USA, 80112
Liberty SiriusXM Group through its subsidiary holding is engaged in providing a subscription-based satellite radio service. It transmits music, sports, entertainment, comedy, talk, news, traffic and weather channels, as well as infotainment services. The firm's segments include Sirius XM Holdings, Formula 1, and Braves Group. The company distributes its satellite radios through automakers and rental car companies, as well as through its retail locations and Website; and satellite radio services to various automaker customers. Geographically it offers services in the region of the US and Canada.
Executives
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc |
10 percent owner |
3555 FARNAM STREET, OMAHA NE 68131 |
| Larry E Romrell |
director |
12300 LIBERTY BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Gilchrist Malcolm Ian Grant |
director |
12300 LIBERTY BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Gregory B Maffei |
director, officer: President, CEO |
12300 LIBERTY BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| John C Malone |
officer: Chairman |
12300 LIBERTY BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Albert E Rosenthaler |
officer: Senior Vice President |
12300 LIBERTY BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Brian J Wendling |
officer: SVP/Controller/PFO |
12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Andrea L Wong |
director |
12300 LIBERTY BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Plc Barclays |
10 percent owner |
1 CHURCHILL PLACE, CANARY WHARF, LONDON X0 E14 5HP |
| David E Rapley |
director |
12300 LIBERTY BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| R. Ted Weschler, |
other: Member of 10% owner group |
404B EAST MAIN STREET, 2ND FLOOR, CHARLOTTESVILLE VA 22902 |
| Warren E Buffett |
10 percent owner |
3555 FARNAM ST, STE 1440, OMAHA NE 68131 |
| Derek Chang |
director |
C/O CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC, 12405 POWERCOURT DR, ST LOUIS MO 63131 |
| Renee L Wilm |
officer: Chief Legal Officer |
12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Richard N Baer |
officer: SVP, General Counsel |
|
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