Lennox International (Lennox International) Predictability Rank

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What is Lennox International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lennox International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lennox International (Lennox International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Lennox International Inc (NYSE:LII) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LXI:Germany LXI:Germany

Address

2140 Lake Park Boulevard, Richardson, TX, USA, 75080

Website

https://www.lennoxinternational.com

Lennox International manufactures and distributes heating, ventilating, air conditioning, and refrigeration products to replacement (75% of sales) and new construction (25% of sales) markets. In fiscal 2022, residential HVAC was 68% of sales, commercial HVAC was 19%, and refrigeration accounted for the remaining 13% of sales. The company goes to market with multiple brands, but Lennox is the company's flagship HVAC brand. The Texas-based company will be focused on North America after the sale of its European HVAC and refrigeration businesses in late 2023.

Executives

Gary S Bedard	officer: President and COO, WWR	2140 LAKE PARK BLVD, RICHARDSON TX 75080
Joseph Nassab	officer: EVP, President/COO Commercial	2140 LAKE PARK BLVD, RICHARDSON TX 75080
Prakash Bedapudi	officer: EVP, Chief Technology Officer	2140 LAKE PARK BLVD, RICHARDSON TX 75080
Joseph William Reitmeier	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	2140 LAKE PARK BLVD., RICHARDSON TX 75080
Chris Kosel	officer: VP-Corp Controller and CAO	2140 LAKE PARK BLVD., RICHARDSON TX 75080
Daniel M Sessa	officer: EVP, Chief HR Officer	2140 LAKE PARK BLVD., RICHARDSON TX 75080
John D Torres	officer: EVP, Chief Legal Officer	2140 LAKE PARK BLVD., RICHARDSON TX 75080
Todd J Teske	director
Sherry Buck	director	PO BOX 10060, TOLEDO OH 436990060
Elliot S Zimmer	officer: EVP, President/COO Commercial	2140 LAKE PARK BLVD., RICHARDSON TX 75080
Alok Maskara	officer: CEO	2140 LAKE PARK BLVD, RICHARDSON TX 75080
Todd M Bluedorn	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	2140 LAKE PARK BLVD., RICHARDSON TX 75080
Shane D Wall	director	2140 LAKE PARK BLVD., RICHARDSON TX 75080
Karen H Quintos	director	ONE DELL WAY, ROUND ROCK TX 78682
Janet Katherine Cooper	director	8111 LYNDALE AVENUE SOUTH, BLOOMINGTON MN 55420