AEye (LIDR) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2021. Start your Free Trial

What is AEye Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AEye Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

AEye Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of AEye's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

AEye (LIDR) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » AEye Inc (NAS:LIDR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

MRDB KPLT SNCR AUID SOS APCX CISO VRAR SKKY APGT MSFT ORCL ADBE PANW SNPS VMW FTNT CRWD PLTR SQ

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

One Park Place, Suite 200, Dublin, CA, USA, 94568

Website

https://www.aeye.ai

AEye Inc is a provider of high-performance, active lidar systems for vehicle autonomy, advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), and robotic vision applications. The company's software-definable 4Sight Intelligent Sensing Platform combines solid-state active lidar, an optionally fused low-light HD camera, and integrated deterministic artificial intelligence to capture more intelligent information with less data, enabling faster, more accurate, and more reliable perception of the surroundings. All of the Company's sales were made to customers located in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

Executives

Luis Dussan	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CTO and Chief Prdct Strategist	C/O 1 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, DUBLIN CA 94568
Jonathon B. Husby	director	ONE PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, DUBLIN CA 94568
Wen Hsuan Hsieh	director	C/O DESKTOP METAL, INC., 63 THIRD AVENUE, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Tierney Conor B	officer: Treasurer & CFO	ONE PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, DUBLIN CA 94568
Matthew Fisch	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	21680 HAGGERTY ROAD, NORTHVILLE MI 48167
Tirukkur R Ramachandran	officer: Chief Operating Officer	ONE PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, DUBLIN CA 94568
Timothy J Dunn	director	C/O AEYE, INC., ONE PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, DUBLIN CA 94568
Andrew S Hughes	officer: Secretary and General Counsel	AEYE, INC., C/O 1 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, DUBLIN CA 94568
Carol Dibattiste	director	1155 W FREDERICK SMALL RD, JUPITER FL 33458
Sue Zeifman	director	AEYE, INC., ONE PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, DUBLIN CA 94568
Blair Lacorte	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O AEYE TECHNOLOGIES, INC., C/O 1 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, DUBLIN CA 94568
Robert Anthony Brown	officer: Treasurer, CFO, Chf Accntg Off	C/O 1 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, DUBLIN CA 94568
Thomas Tewell	officer: Chief Operating Officer	5521 HELLYER AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95138
Karl-thomas Neumann	director	C/O AEYE TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 1 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, DUBLIN CA 94568
Bernd Gottschalk	director	C/O AEYE TECHNOLOGIES, INC., C/O 1 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, DUBLIN CA 64568