What is Liberty Broadband Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Liberty Broadband Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Liberty Broadband (Liberty Broadband) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
12300 Liberty Boulevard, Englewood, CO, USA, 80112
Liberty Broadband Corp serves in the telecommunications industry in the United States. It provides cable services to both residential and small to medium businesses through its fiber, hybrid fiber, and coaxial cable infrastructure. The services provided by the company are residential services which include video services, internet services, voice services, and mobile services, commercial services which include small, and medium business and enterprise solutions, advertising services, and other services which include security and home management. The reportable segments of the company are GCI Holdings, Charter. The firm derives the majority of its revenue from GCI Holdings.
Executives
| Sue Ann Hamilton |
director |
12405 POWERSCOURT DRIVE, ST. LOUIS MO 63131 |
| Gregg L Engles |
director |
1225 SEVENTEENTH STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Julie D. Frist |
director |
810 JACKSON BLVD., NASHVILLE TN 37205 |
| Renee L Wilm |
officer: Chief Legal Officer |
12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| John C Malone |
director, 10 percent owner |
12300 LIBERTY BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Brian J Wendling |
officer: SVP/Controller/PFO |
12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Mark D Carleton |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
12300 LIBERTY BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| J David Wargo |
director |
C/O WARGO & CO, 712 FIFTH AVENUE 41ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Donne F Fisher |
director |
12300 LIBERTY BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Welsh John E Iii |
director |
AVALON CAPITAL PARTNERS, 181 MAIN ST, COLD SPRING HARBOR NY 11724 |
| Richard R Green |
director |
1550 WEWATTA STREET, STE 1000, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Gregory B Maffei |
director, officer: President/CEO |
12300 LIBERTY BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Liberty Media Corp |
10 percent owner |
12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Albert E Rosenthaler |
officer: Senior Vice President |
12300 LIBERTY BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
| Christopher W Shean |
officer: Senior Vice President/CFO |
12300 LIBERTY BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80116 |
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