Lithia Motors (Lithia Motors) Predictability Rank

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What is Lithia Motors Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lithia Motors Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lithia Motors (Lithia Motors) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Lithia Motors Inc (NYSE:LAD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LMO:Germany

Address

150 N. Bartlett Street, Medford, OR, USA, 97501

Website

https://www.lithia.com

Lithia Motors is a retailer of new and used vehicles and related services. The company offers over 45 brands of vehicles at about 350 stores globally including 28 U.S. states at year-end 2022 and entered Canada in mid-2021 with the purchase of Pfaff Automotive and bought Jardine and soon Pendragon in the U.K. in 2023. The company has expanded largely through the acquisition of dealerships in smaller regional markets but now seeks to grow in any part of the U.S. and we expect more deals over time in the U.S. and abroad. Annual revenue in 2022 was $28.2 billion and we see over $50 billion possible in 2025. In 2022, new-car sales were about 46% of total revenue. Lithia was founded in 1946, went public in 1996, and is now the largest U.S. auto dealer. It is based in Medford, Oregon.

Executives

Shauna Mcintyre	director	150 N. BARTLETT STREET, MEDFORD OR 97501
Sidney B Deboer	director, officer: Executive Chairman	234 VISTA ST., ASHLAND OR 97520
Bryan B Deboer	director, officer: Chief Executive officer	150 N. BARTLETT STREET, MEDFORD OR 97501
Tina Miller	officer: VP, CAO & Principal Fin. Off.	150 N. BARTLETT ST., MEDFORD OR 97501
Chris Holzshu	officer: Sr. Vice President & CFO	150 N. BARTLETT STREET, MEDFORD OR 97501
David Stork	officer: Senior Vice President	150 N. BARTLETT STREET, MEDFORD OR 97501
George N Hines	officer: SVP, Chief Tech. & Innov. Off.	150 N. BARTLETT ST., MEDFORD OR 97501
Loretz Congdon Stacy	director	C/O CORE-MARK HOLDING CO. INC., 395 OYSTER POINT BLVD., SUITE 415, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Gary M Glandon	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O LITHIA MOTORS, INC., 150 NORTH BARTLETT STREET, MEDFORD OR 97501
James E. Lentz	director	C/O LITHIA MOTORS INC., 150 NORTH BARTLETT STREET, MEDFORD OR 97501
Louis Miramontes	director	150 N. BARTLETT ST., MEDFORD OR 97501
Scott Hillier	officer: Sr. VP of Operations	150 N. BARTLETT STREET, MEDFORD OR 97501
Kenneth E Roberts	director	150 N. BARTLETT ST., MEDFORD OR 97501
Marguerite Celeste	officer: Senior Vice President	150 N BARTLETT STREET, MEDFORD OR 97501
Susan O Cain	director	150 NORTH BARTLETT STREET, MEDFORD OR 97501