The Kroger Co (The Kroger Co) Predictability Rank

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What is The Kroger Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Kroger Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Kroger Co (The Kroger Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » The Kroger Co (NYSE:KR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

KR:Mexico 1KR:Italy KOG:Germany KOG:Germany KOG:Germany K1RC34:Brazil KR:Austria

Address

1014 Vine Street, Cincinnati, OH, USA, 45202

Website

https://www.thekrogerco.com

Kroger is the leading U.S. grocer, with 2,719 supermarkets operating under several banners throughout the country at the end of fiscal 2022. Around 83% of stores have pharmacies, while nearly 60% also sell fuel. The company also operates roughly 120 fine jewelry stores. Kroger features a leading private-label offering and manufactures around 30% of its own-brand units (and more than 40% of its grocery own-label assortment) itself in 33 food production plants nationwide. Kroger is a top-two grocer in most of its major markets (as of early 2021, according to company data). Virtually all of Kroger's sales come from the United States. Kroger has offered to acquire Albertsons in a $25 billion deal; if the transaction is approved by regulators, it should close in 2024.

Executives

Carin L Fike	officer: Vice President and Treasurer	1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Timothy A Massa	officer: Group Vice President	1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Christine S Wheatley	officer: Group Vice President	1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Kenneth C Kimball	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O THE KROGER CO., 1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Stuart Aitken	officer: Group Vice President	C/O JOURNAL MEDIA GROUP, INC., 333 WEST STATE STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53203
Yael Cosset	officer: Group Vice President	1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Gary Millerchip	officer: Senior Vice President and CFO	1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Todd A Foley	officer: Vice President and Treasurer	1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Valerie L. Jabbar	officer: Senior Vice President	THE KROGER CO., 1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Mary Ellen Adcock	officer: Group Vice President	1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Calvin J Kaufman	officer: Group Vice President	THE KROGER CO., 1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Mark C Tuffin	officer: Senior Vice President	THE KROGER CO., 1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Elaine L. Chao	director	C/O DOLE FOOD COMPANY, INC., ONE DOLE DRIVE, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91362
Michael Joseph Donnelly	officer: Senior Vice President
Susan J Kropf	director	C/O AVON PRODUCTS INC, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105-0196