Kodiak Sciences (Kodiak Sciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Kodiak Sciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kodiak Sciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kodiak Sciences (Kodiak Sciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Kodiak Sciences Inc (NAS:KOD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

K27:Germany

Address

1200 Page Mill Road, Palo Alto, CA, USA, 94304

Website

https://www.kodiak.com

Kodiak Sciences Inc is a biopharmaceutical company specializing in novel therapeutics to treat high-prevalence retinal diseases. The product candidate of the company is KSI-301, which is a novel antibody biopolymer conjugate, in treatment-naive subjects with neovascular wet AMD.

Executives

Jason Ehrlich	officer: See Remarks	1200 PAGE MILL ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94304
John A. Borgeson	officer: See Remarks	1200 PAGE MILL ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Baker Bros. Advisors Lp	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Victor Perlroth	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	1200 PAGE MILL ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Julian Baker	director, 10 percent owner	BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP, 860 WASHINGTON STREET 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Felix Baker	director, 10 percent owner	BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP, 860 WASHINGTON STREET 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Baker Brothers Life Sciences Lp	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
L.p. 667,	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Baker Bros. Advisors (gp) Llc	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Charles A Bancroft	director	BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY, ROUTE 206 & PROVINCE LINE ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08543
Hong Liang	officer: See Remarks	2631 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Richard S Levy	director	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Taiyin Yang	director	2631 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Robert Profusek	director	P.O. BOX 696000, SAN ANTONIO TX 78269-6000
Bassil I Dahiyat	director	C/O XENCOR, INC., 111 WEST LEMON AVENUE, MONROVIA CA 91016