Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc (NYSE:KNX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

KSX:Germany

Address

2002 West Wahalla Lane, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85027

Website

https://www.knight-swift.com

Knight-Swift is the largest truckload, or TL, carrier in the U.S., with a diversified transportation offering. Pro forma for the U.S. Xpress deal, 74% of revenue derives from Knight's asset-based trucking business, with full-truckload (for-hire dry van, refrigerated, and dedicated contract) making up 63% and LTL at 11%. Truck brokerage and other asset-light logistics services make up 14% of revenue, with intermodal near 6%. Knight's intermodal operations use the Class-I railroads for the underlying movement of its shipping containers and also include drayage (regional trucking services to and from inland intermodal ramps/terminals). The remainder of revenue (6%) reflects services offered to shippers and third-party truckers including insurance, equipment maintenance, and equipment leasing.

Executives

Timothy Sean Harrington	officer: Exec. Vice Pres. Sales	2200 NORTH 75TH AVENUE, PHOENIX AZ 85027
James L Fitzsimmons	officer: Exec. Vice Pres. Operations	2200 NORTH 75TH AVENUE, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Cary M Flanagan	officer: Controller	SWIFT TRANSPORTATION COMPANY, 2200 SOUTH 75TH AVENUE, PHOENIX AZ 85043
Amy Boerger	director	2002 W WAHALLA LANE, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Kevin P Knight	director, officer: Executive Chairman	5601 WEST BUCKEYE ROAD, PHOENIX AZ 85043
Joshua Smith	officer: CFO, US Xpress Inc.	2002 W WAHALLA LANE, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Dustin Ohlman	officer: VP Intermodal	2200 S 75TH AVE, PHOENIX AZ 85043
Reed Stultz	officer: SR VP Logistics	2002 W WAHALLA LANE, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Michael K Liu	officer: Exec VP of Ops, Knight Trans	5601 WEST BUCKEYE ROAD, PHOENIX AZ 85043
Kathryn L Munro	director	200 N WASHINGTON SQUARE, LANSING MI 48933
Jessica Powell	director	2002 W WAHALLA, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Updike James E. Jr.	officer: EVP Sales & Mkt, Knight Trans.	5601 WEST BUCKEYE ROAD, PHOENIX AZ 85043
Louis Hobson	director	2002 W WAHALLA LANE, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Gary J Knight	director, officer: Vice Chairman	2200 NORTH 75TH AVENUE, PHOENIX AZ 85027
Reid Dove	director	20002 NORTH 19TH AVENUE, PHOENIX AZ 85027