What is The St. Joe Co Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
The St. Joe Co Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
The St. Joe Co (The St. Joe Co) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
130 Richard Jackson Boulevard, Suite 200, Panama City Beach, FL, USA, 32407
The St. Joe Co is a real estate development, asset management, and operating company and it has three operating segments; the Residential segment plans and develops residential communities and sells homesites to homebuilders or retail consumers, the Hospitality segment features a private membership club (the Watersound Club), hotel operations, food and beverage operations, golf courses, beach clubs, retail outlets, gulf-front vacation rentals, management services, marinas, and other entertainment assets, and Commercial segment include leasing of commercial property, multi-family, senior living, self-storage, and other assets and it also oversees the planning, development, entitlement, management, and sale of commercial and rural land holdings.
Executives
| Fairholme Funds Inc |
10 percent owner |
5966 S DIXIE HWY, SUITE 300, SOUTH MIAMI FL 33143 |
| Jorge Luis Gonzalez |
officer: Sr Vice President-Development |
133 SOUTH WATERSOUND PARKWAY, WATERSOUND FL 32461 |
| Marek Bakun |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
133 SOUTH WATERSOUND PARKWAY, WATERSOUND FL 32413 |
| Elizabeth J Walters |
officer: SVP, GC & Corporate Secretary |
133 SOUTH WATERSOUND PARKWAY, WATERSOUND FL 32641 |
| Rhea Goff |
officer: SVP & Chief Admin. Officer |
133 S WATERSOUND PARKWAY, WATERSOUND FL 32461 |
| Howard S Frank |
director |
|
| Kenneth Borick |
officer: SVP, General Counsel |
133 SOUTH WATERSOUND PARKWAY, WATERSOUND FL 32413 |
| Cesar L Alvarez |
director |
C/O PEDIATRIX MEDICAL GROUP, LEGAL DEPT 1301- CONCORD TERRACE, SUNRISE FL 33323 |
| Patrick Wayne Murphy |
officer: SVP, Operations |
133 SOUTH WATERSOUND PARKWAY, WATERSOUND FL 32413 |
| Fairholme Capital Management Llc |
10 percent owner |
5966 S DIXIE HWY, SUITE 300, SOUTH MIAMI FL 33143 |
| James S Hunt |
director |
300 N. BEACH STREET, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32114 |
| Susan D Mermer |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
133 SOUTH WATERSOUND PARKWAY, WATERSOUND FL 32413 |
| Vito S Portera |
director |
133 SOUTH WATERSOUND PARKWAY, WATERSOUND FL 32413 |
| David Harrelson |
officer: Vice President, Timberland |
133 SOUTH WATERSOUND PARKWAY, WATERSOUND FL 32413 |
| Joanne Kay Viard |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
133 S. WATERSOUND PARKWAY, WATERSOUND FL 32413 |
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