Johnson & Johnson (Johnson & Johnson) Predictability Rank

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What is Johnson & Johnson Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Johnson & Johnson Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Johnson & Johnson (Johnson & Johnson) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

JNJ:Peru JNJ:Mexico JNJ_KZ:Kazakhstan 1JNJ:Italy JNJd:UK 0R34:UK JNJ0:Germany JNJ:Germany JNJ:Germany JNJ:Germany JNJ:Germany JNJ:Canada JNJB34:Brazil JNJ:Austria JNJ:Argentina

Address

One Johnson and Johnson Plaza, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, 08933

Website

https://www.jnj.com

Johnson & Johnson is the world's largest and most diverse healthcare firm. Three divisions make up the firm: pharmaceutical, medical devices and diagnostics, and consumer. The drug and device groups represent close to 80% of sales and drive the majority of cash flows for the firm. The drug division focuses on the following therapeutic areas: immunology, oncology, neurology, pulmonary, cardiology, and metabolic diseases. The device segment focuses on orthopedics, surgery tools, vision care, and a few smaller areas. The last segment of consumer focuses on baby care, beauty, oral care, over-the-counter drugs, and women's health. The consumer group is being divested in 2023 under the new name Kenvue. Geographically, just over half of total revenue is generated in the United States.

Executives

Timothy Schmid	officer: EVP, WW Chair, MedTech	ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
William Hait	officer: See Remarks	ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Peter Fasolo	officer: VP, Worldwide Human Resources	JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Kathryn E Wengel	officer: EVP, Chief GSC Officer	JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
John C Reed	officer: EVP, Pharmaceuticals R&D	ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, WHQ 2134, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
James D. Swanson	officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer	ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Paula A Johnson	director	22 CHERRY HILL DRIVE, DANVERS MA 01923
Joseph J Wolk	officer: Exec VP, CFO	JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Ashley Mcevoy	officer: EVP, WW Chair, Medical Devices	JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Jennifer L Taubert	officer: EVP, WW Chair, Pharmaceuticals	JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Robert J Decker	officer: Controller, CAO	ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Thibaut Mongon	officer: Exec VP, WW Chair, Consumer	JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Elizabeth Forminard	officer: Executive VP, General Counsel	ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Darius Adamczyk	director	855 S. MINT STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Vanessa Broadhurst	officer: EVP, Global Corp Aff.	ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933