JELD-WEN Holding (JELD-WEN Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is JELD-WEN Holding Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

JELD-WEN Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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JELD-WEN Holding (JELD-WEN Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » JELD-WEN Holding Inc (NYSE:JELD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0JW:Germany

Address

2645 Silver Crescent Drive, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28273

Website

https://www.jeld-wen.com

JELD-WEN Holding Inc is engaged in door and window manufacturing. The company design, produce and distribute interior and exterior building product, offering a selection of doors, windows, walls, and related products. The products are used in the new construction of residential single and multi-family homes and non-residential buildings. The firm's operating segments are North America, Europe, and Australasia. It generates a majority of its revenue from North America.

Executives

Michael F Hilton	director	28601 CLEMENS ROAD, WESTLAKE OH 44145
Wendy A. Livingston	officer: EVP & CHRO	350 POPLAR CHURCH ROAD, CAMP HILL PA 17011
James S Hayes	officer: EVP, GC & Corp Sec	2645 SILVER CRESCENT DRIVE, CHARLOTTE NC 28273
Timothy Craven	officer: EVP, Human Resources	JELD-WEN HOLDING, INC., 440 S. CHURCH STREET, SUITE 400, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
John Krause	officer: SVP & GM, NA	2645 SILVER CRESCENT DRIVE, CHARLOTTE NC 28273
Michael A Leon	officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	SEALED AIR CORPORATION, 2415 CASCADE POINTE BLVD, CHARLOTTE NC 28208
Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc.	10 percent owner	SCOTIA PLAZA, 40 KING STREET WEST, SUITE 5100, TORONTO A6 M5H 3Y2
David G Nord	director	UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP, ONE FINANCIAL PLAZA, HARTFORD CT 06101
Catherine Ann Halligan	director	243 CASELLI AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94114
Steven E Wynne	director	27700 SW PARKWAY AVENUE, WILSONVILLE OR 97070
Kevin C Lilly	officer: Interim CEO	2645 SILVER CRESCENT DRIVE, CHARLOTTE NC 28273
Julie C Albrecht	officer: EVP & CFO	ONE NORTH SECOND STREET, HARTSVILLE SC 29550
William Christensen	officer: EVP & President, Europe	2645 SILVER CRESCENT DRIVE, CHARLOTTE NC 28273
Scott Vining	officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	PARAGON FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 830-13 A1A NORTH, PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL 32082
Roderick Wendt	director, other: Vice Chairman	JELD-WEN HOLDING, INC., 440 S. CHURCH STREET, SUITE 400, CHARLOTTE NC 28202