JB Hunt Transport Services (JB Hunt Transport Services) Predictability Rank

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What is JB Hunt Transport Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

JB Hunt Transport Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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JB Hunt Transport Services (JB Hunt Transport Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » JB Hunt Transport Services Inc (NAS:JBHT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

JB1:Germany JBHT:Austria

Address

615 J.B. Hunt Corporate Drive, P.O. Box 130, Lowell, AR, USA, 72745-0130

Website

https://www.jbhunt.com

J.B. Hunt Transport Services ranks among the top surface transportation companies in North America by revenue. Its primary operating segments are intermodal delivery, which uses the Class I rail carriers for the underlying line-haul movement of its owned containers (48% of sales in 2023); dedicated trucking services that provide customer-specific fleet needs (28%); for-hire truckload (6%); heavy goods final-mile delivery (7%), and asset-light truck brokerage (11%).

Executives

James K Thompson	director, officer: President and Chief Executive	615 J.B. HUNT CORPORATE DRIVE, LOWELL AR 72745
Shelley Simpson	other: President, ICS	615 JB HUNT CORPORATE DRIVE, LOWELL AR 72745
Spencer Frazier	officer: EVP of Sales and Marketing	615 J.B. HUNT CORPORATE DRIVE, LOWELL AR 72745
Eric Mcgee	officer: EVP Highway Services	615 J.B. HUNT CORPORATE DRIVE, LOWELL AR 72745
Darren P. Field	officer: EVP Intermodal	615 J.B. HUNT CORPORATE DRIVE, LOWELL AR 72745
David Keefauver	officer: EVP of DCS	615 J.B. HUNT CORPORATE DRIVE, LOWELL AR 72745
Bradley W. Hicks	officer: EVP Dedicated	615 J.B. HUNT CORPORATE DRIVE, LOWELL AR 72745
Nicholas Hobbs	officer: EVP/President DCS	PO BOX 130, 615 J.B. HUNT CORPORATE DRIVE, LOWELL AR 72745
Stuart Lockard Scott	other: EVP/CIO	615 J.B. HUNT CORPORATE DRIVE, LOWELL AR 72745
John Kuhlow	other: VP/Controller	615 JB HUNT CORPORATE DRIVE, LOWELL AR 72745
Persio V Lisboa	director	C/O NAVISTAR INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION, 2701 NAVISTAR DRIVE, LISLE IL 60532
Alfred C Harper	other: EVP and Chief Operations Offic	615 J.B. HUNT CORPORATE DRIVE, LOWELL AR 72745
Sharilyn S Gasaway	director	ONE ALLIED DRIVE, LITTLE ROCK AR 72202
Brian Webb	officer: EVP- Final Mile Services	615 J.B. HUNT CORPORATE DRIVE, LOWELL AR 72745
Jennifer Boattini	officer: See Remarks	615 J.B. HUNT CORPORATE DRIVE, LOWELL AR 72745