Jazz Pharmaceuticals (Jazz Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Jazz Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Jazz Pharmaceuticals (Jazz Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC (NAS:JAZZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

JAZZ:Mexico J7Z:Germany J7Z:Germany

Address

Waterloo Road, Fifth Floor, Waterloo Exchange, Dublin, IRL, D04 E5W7

Website

https://www.jazzpharmaceuticals.com

Jazz Pharmaceuticals is an Ireland-domiciled biopharmaceutical firm focused primarily on treatments for sleeping disorders and oncology. Jazz has nine approved drugs across neuroscience and oncology indications; its portfolio includes Xyrem and Xywav for narcolepsy, Zepzelca for the treatment of metastatic small cell lung cancer, Rylaze for acute lymphoblastic leukemia, and Vyxeos for acute myeloid leukemia. In May 2021, Jazz acquired GW Pharmaceuticals and gained its leading product, Epidiolex for the treatment of severe, rare forms of epilepsy.

Executives

Jennifer E. Cook	director	C/O DENALI THERAPEUTICS INC., 151 OYSTER POINT BLVD., 2ND FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Mark Douglas Smith	director	C/O TELADOC HEALTH, INC., 2 MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, SUITE 203, PURCHASE NY 10577
Neena M Patil	officer: SVP, General Counsel	JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS, 3170 PORTER DRIVE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Patricia Carr	officer: VP, Finance& PAO	JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS, 3170 PORTER DRIVE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Heather Ann Mcsharry	director	C/O JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 5TH FL, WATERLOO EXCHANGE, WATERLOO RD, DUBLIN L2 4 L2
Patrick G Enright	director, 10 percent owner	CO LONGITUDE CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC, 800 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 220, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Norbert G Riedel	director	BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INC, ONE BAXTER PKWY DF2-1W, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Catherine A. Sohn	director	C/O JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 5TH FL, WATERLOO EXCHANGE, WATERLOO RD, DUBLIN L2 4 L2
Rick E Winningham	director	901 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Peter Gray	director	C/O JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 5TH FL, WATERLOO EXCHANGE, WATERLOO RD, DUBLIN L2 4 L2
Anne Oriordan	director	HOUSE 120, TAI HANG HAU VILLAGE, LOBSTER BAY, CLEARWATER BAY K3 HK
Kenneth W O'keefe	director	C/O BEECKEN PETTY O'KEEFE & COMPANY, 131 S. DEARBORN STREET, SUITE 2800, CHICAGO IL 60603
Mary Elizabeth Henderson	officer: SVP, Technical Operations	3170 PORTER DRIVE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Renee D Gala	officer: EVP & CFO	901 GATEWAY BLVD, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Kim Sablich	officer: EVP & GM, North America	C/O MYOVANT SCIENCES INC., 2000 SIERRA POINT PARKWAY, BRISBANE CA 94005