Jack In The Box (Jack In The Box) Predictability Rank

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What is Jack In The Box Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Jack In The Box Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Jack In The Box (Jack In The Box) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Jack In The Box Inc (NAS:JACK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

JBX:Germany

Address

9357 Spectrum Center Boulevard, San Diego, CA, USA, 92123

Website

https://www.jackinthebox.com

Jack In The Box Inc operates quick-service restaurants and fast-casual restaurants in California, the USA under the brands Jack in the Box. The company menu offers burgers, tacos, regular and curly fries, specialty sandwiches, salads and ice cream shakes. These foods are available with the option of customization as per customer requirements. The company also offer catering and delivery services to its customers. Jack in the Box and Del Taco restaurant brands are the two operating segments, out of which Jack in the box generates maximum revenue.

Executives

Darin S Harris	director, officer: Director & CEO	C/O JACK IN THE BOX INC. 9330 BALBOA AVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Steven Piano	officer: SVP, Chief People Officer	1550 UTICA AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 100, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55416
Ryan Lee Ostrom	officer: EVP, Chief Marketing Officer	300 SIXTH AVENUE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Sarah L Super	officer: SVP - CHF LEGAL & RISK OFFICER	C/O JACK IN THE BOX INC. 9330 BALBOA AVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Dean C Gordon	officer: SVP - CHF SUPPLY CHAIN OFFICER	C/O JACK IN THE BOX INC, 9330 BALBOA AVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Richard D Cook	officer: SVP, Chief Technology Officer	C/O JACK IN THE BOX INC., 9357 SPECTRUM CENTER BLVD, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Timothy T Linderman	officer: SVP Chf Fran&Corp Dev Officer	C/O JACK IN THE BOX INC., 9357 SPECTRUM CENTER BLVD, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Tony J Darden	officer: SVP, Chief Operating Officer	C/O JACK IN THE BOX INC., 9357 SPECTRUM CENTER BLVD, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Dawn E Hooper	officer: SVP Controller / Interim PFO	C/O JACK IN THE BOX INC., 9357 SPECTRUM CENTER BLVD, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Brian M. Scott	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	12400 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Chad Gretzema	officer: DEL TACO BRAND PRESIDENT	25521 COMMERCENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 200, LAKE FOREST CA 92630
Michael W Murphy	director	C/O JACK IN THE BOX, 9330 BALBOA AVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Timothy E Mullany	officer: EVP, CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	3551 PLANO PARKWAY, THE COLONY TX 75056
Guillermo Jr Diaz	director	C/O JACK IN THE BOX INC, 9357 SPECTRUM CENTER BLVD, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Madeleine Kleiner	director	C/O NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORPORATION, 2980 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE, FALLS CHURCH VA 22042