InvenTrust Properties (InvenTrust Properties) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2014. Start your Free Trial

What is InvenTrust Properties Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

InvenTrust Properties Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

InvenTrust Properties Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of InvenTrust Properties's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

InvenTrust Properties (InvenTrust Properties) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » InvenTrust Properties Corp (NYSE:IVT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3025 Highland Parkway, Suite 350, Downers Grove, IL, USA, 60515

Website

https://www.inventrustproperties.com

InvenTrust Properties Corp is the United States of America based company qualified as a REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust). It owns, manages, acquires and develops a diversified portfolio of commercial real estate located across the United States. The company also owns properties in development and partially owns properties through joint ventures, as well as investments in marketable securities and other assets. The company focuses on investing in an open-air retail platform comprised of grocery-anchored centers and necessity-based power centers. InvenTrust operates through a single segment i.e. multi-tenant retail.

Executives

Smita Shah	director	3025 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 350, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
David Bryson	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	3025 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 350, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Michael Douglas Phillips	officer: S.V.P., C.A.O. & Controller	3025 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 350, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Daniel Busch	officer: E.V.P., C.F.O. & Treasurer	3025 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 350, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Amanda Elizabeth Black	director	3025 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 350, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Christy Lynn David	officer: EVP, General Counsel & Sec.	3025 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 350, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Ivy Zoe Greaner	officer: Chief Operating Officer	3025 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Stuart Aitken	director	C/O JOURNAL MEDIA GROUP, INC., 333 WEST STATE STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53203
Adam M Jaworski	officer: SVP/Chief Accounting Officer	2809 BUTTERFIELD ROAD, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Scott A. Nelson	director	2809 BUTTERFIELD ROAD, SUITE 200, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Michael A Stein	director	4582 S. ULSTER STREET, SUITE 1100, DENVER CO 80237
Julian E Whitehurst	director
Anna N Fitzgerald	officer: See Remarks	191 N WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 1200, CHICAGO IL 60606
David F Collins	officer: See Remarks	2809 BUTTERFIELD ROAD, SUITE 360, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Michael E. Podboy	officer: See Remarks	2901 BUTTERFIELD ROAD, OAK BROOK IL 60523