Ionis Pharmaceuticals (Ionis Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Ionis Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ionis Pharmaceuticals (Ionis Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:IONS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

IONS:Mexico ISI:Germany ISI:Germany

Address

2855 Gazelle Court, Carlsbad, CA, USA, 92010

Website

https://www.ionispharma.com

Ionis Pharmaceuticals is the leading developer of antisense technology to discover and develop novel drugs. Its broad clinical and preclinical pipeline targets a wide variety of diseases, with an emphasis on cardiovascular, metabolic, neurological, and rare diseases. Ionis and partner Biogen brought Spinraza to market in 2016 as a treatment for a rare neuromuscular disorder, spinal muscular atrophy, and Biogen launched ALS drug Qalsody in 2023. Ionis brought two additional drugs to market via its cardiovascular-focused subsidiary Akcea, including ATTR amyloidosis drug Tegsedi (2018) and cardiology drug Waylivra (Europe, 2019).

Executives

Brian Birchler	officer: EVP, Corp and Development Ops	C/O IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 2855 GAZELLE COURT, CARLSBAD CA 92010
Patrick R. O'neil	officer: SVP, Legal and General Counsel	C/O IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 2855 GAZELLE COURT, CARLSBAD CA 92010
Onaiza Cadoret-manier	officer: Chief Corp Dev and Cml Officer	2855 GAZELLE COURT, C/O IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., CARLSBAD CA 92010
Eugene Schneider	officer: EVP, Chf Clinical Develop Offc	C/O IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS, 2855 GAZELLE CT, CARLSBAD CA 92010
Joseph Baroldi	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., C/O IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., CARLSBAD CA 92010
Eric Swayze	officer: SVP, Research	2855 GAZELLE COURT, 2855 GAZELLE COURT, CARLSBAD CA 92010
Brett P Monia	director, officer: Senior Vice President	2855 GAZELLE COURT, C/O IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., CARLSBAD CA 92010
Richard S Geary	officer: Senior Vice President	2855 GAZELLE COURT, 2855 GAZELLE COURT, CARLSBAD CA 92010
Elizabeth L Hougen	officer: SVP, Finance and CFO	2855 GAZELLE COURT, C/O IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., CARLSBAD CA 92010
C Frank Bennett	officer: Vice President	2855 GAZELLE COURT, C/O IONIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., CARLSBAD CA 92010
B Lynne Parshall	director, officer: Executive Vice President, CFO	2855 GAZELLE COURT, CARLSBAD CA 92010
Joseph Iii Klein	director	C/O GENAISSANCE PHARMACEUTICALS INC, FIVE SCIENCE PARK, NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Allene M. Diaz	director	C/O ALLENA PHARMACEUTIALS, INC., ONEW NEWTON EXECUTIVE PARK SUITE 202, NEWTON MA 02462
Spencer R Berthelsen	director	2855 GAZELLE COURT, CARLSBAD CA 92010
Frederick T Muto	director	2855 GAZELLE COURT, CARLSBAD CA 92010