iHeartMedia (iHeartMedia) Predictability Rank

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What is iHeartMedia Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

iHeartMedia Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

iHeartMedia Predictability Rank Related Terms

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iHeartMedia (iHeartMedia) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » iHeartMedia Inc (NAS:IHRT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

IHRTB:USA

Address

20880 Stone Oak Parkway, San Antonio, TX, USA, 78258

Website

https://www.iheartmedia.com

iHeartMedia Inc is a us-based diversified media and entertainment company. It operates through the segments of the Multiplatform Group, the Digital Audio Group, and the Audio & Media Services Group. The company derives prime revenue from the Multiplatform Group segment which includes the company's Broadcast radio, Networks and Sponsorships, and Events businesses. The Digital Audio Group segment includes all of the company's digital businesses, including podcasting; and the Audio & Media Services Group includes Katz Media Group, a full-service media representation business, and RCS Sound Software, a provider of scheduling and broadcast software and services.

Executives

Robert W Pittman	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CENDANT, 9 WEST 57TH ST, NEW YORK NY 10019
Scott D Hamilton	officer: See Remarks	200 EAST BASSE ROAD, SAN ANTONIO TX 78209
Michael B Mcguinness	officer: EVP-Finance & Deputy CFO	C/O THE HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP, INC., 1111 MARCUS AVENUE, LAKE SUCCESS NY 11042
Richard J Bressler	director, officer: President, COO and CFO	1515 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
James A Rasulo	director	20880 STONE OAK PARKWAY, SAN ANTONIO TX 78258
Global Media & Entertainment Investments Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O RHONE, BLDG. 2, WESTERN BUS. CNTR., MT. PLEASANT VLG., WESTERN RD, SP63131, NASSAU C5 00000
Simon Groom	10 percent owner	C/O GROOM HILL, 24 BOULEVARD PRINCESSE CHARLOTTE, MONACO O9 98000
Global Media & Entertainment Investments Trust	10 percent owner	C/O GROOM HILL, 24 BOULEVARD PRINCESSE CHARLOTTE, MONACO O9 98000
Michael Tabor	10 percent owner	C/O GROOM HILL, 24 BOULEVARD PRINCESSE CHARLOTTE, MONACO O9 98000
James W. Hill	10 percent owner	C/O GROOM HILL, 24 BOULEVARD PRINCESSE CHARLOTTE, MONACO O9 98000
Samuel Eli Englebardt	director	C/O IHEARTMEDIA, INC., 20880 STONE OAK PARKWAY, SAN ANTONIO TX 78258
Silver Point Capital L.p.	10 percent owner	TWO GREENWICH PLAZA, SUITE 1, GREENWICH CT 06830
Edward A Mule	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER POINT CAPITAL L.P., TWO GREENWICH PLAZA, FIRST FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Robert J O'shea	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER POINT CAPITAL L.P., TWO GREENWICH PLAZA, FIRST FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Jordan Fasbender	officer: SEE BELOW	C/O IHEARTMEDIA, INC., 20880 STONE OAK PARKWAY, SAN ANTONIO TX 78258