Icahn Enterprises LP (Icahn Enterprises LP) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1987. Start your Free Trial

What is Icahn Enterprises LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Icahn Enterprises LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Icahn Enterprises LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Icahn Enterprises LP's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Icahn Enterprises LP (Icahn Enterprises LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Icahn Enterprises LP (NAS:IEP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

16690 Collins Avenue, PH-1, Penthouse Suite, Sunny Isles Beach, FL, USA, 33160

Website

https://www.ielp.com

Icahn Enterprises LP is a provider of diversified business services in the United States. The company operates its business through varied segments which include Investment, Automotive, Energy, Food Packaging, Real Estate, Pharma, and Home Fashion. Among these, the Energy segment derives the maximum revenue from the company. Geographically, it generates maximum revenue from the United States.

Executives

Brett Icahn	director	C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
David Willetts	director, officer: President and CEO	16690 COLLINS AVENUE - PH-1, SUNNY ISLES BEACH FL 33160
Ted Papapostolou	director, officer: CFO & Chief Accounting Officer	16690 COLLINS AVE., SUITE PH-1, SUNNY ISLES BEACH FL 33160
A B Krongard	director	C/O UNDER ARMOUR, INC., 1020 HULL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21230
Aris Kekedjian	director, officer: President and CEO	655 THIRD AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, 10017 NY 10017
Nancy Martori Dunlap	director	C/O CVR REFINING, LP, 2277 PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 500, SUGAR LAND TX 77479
Carl C Icahn	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Board of GP	C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH-1, SUNNY ISLES BEACH FL 33160
Stephen A Mongillo	director	C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
Denise Barton	director	3149 STERLINGSHIRE DRIVE, LAS VEGAS NV 89146
Jack Gumpert Wasserman	director	510 EAST 86TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10028-7504
Michael Nevin	director	C/O ICAHN CAPITAL LP, 767 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 4700, NEW YORK NY 10153
James Larry Nelson	director	2747 PARADISE ROAD, PH2804, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Keith Cozza	director	C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
Sunghwan Cho	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
Peter Reck	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 767 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 4600, NEW YORK NY 10153