IDEXX Laboratories (IDEXX Laboratories) Predictability Rank

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What is IDEXX Laboratories Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

IDEXX Laboratories Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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IDEXX Laboratories (IDEXX Laboratories) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » IDEXX Laboratories Inc (NAS:IDXX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

IDXX:Mexico IX1:Germany I1DX34:Brazil IDXX:Austria

Address

One IDEXX Drive, Westbrook, ME, USA, 04092

Website

https://www.idexx.com

Idexx Laboratories primarily develops, manufactures, and distributes diagnostic products, equipment, and services for pets and livestock. Its key product lines include single-use canine and feline test kits that veterinarians can employ in the office, benchtop chemistry and hematology analyzers for test-panel analysis on-site, reference lab services, and tests to detect and manage disease in livestock. The firm also offers vet practice management software and consulting services to animal hospitals. Idexx gets close to 40% of its revenue from outside the United States.

Executives

James F Polewaczyk	officer: Corporate Vice President	IDEXX LABORATORIES, INC., ONE IDEXX DRIVE, WESTBROOK ME 04092
Jonathan Jay Mazelsky	director, officer: President and CEO	ONE IDEXX DRIVE, WESTBROOK ME 04092
Martin Alexander Smith	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O IDEXX LABORATORIES, INC., ONE IDEXX DRIVE, WESTBROOK ME 04092
Jonathan W Ayers	director, officer: President & CEO	IDEXX LABORATORIES, INC., ONE IDEXX DRIVE, WESTBROOK ME 04092
Michael Lane	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O IDEXX LABORATORIES, INC., WESTBROOK ME 04092
Irene Chang Britt	director	CAMPBELL SOUP COMPANY, ONE CAMPBELL PLACE, CAMDEN NJ 08103
Bruce L. Claflin	director	7035 RIDGE ROAD, HANOVER MD 21076
Samer Abdul Samad	director	5200 ILLUMINA WAY, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Stuart Essig	director	311 C ENTERPRISE DRIVE, PLAINSBORO NJ 08536
Lawrence D Kingsley	director	C/O IDEX CORPORATION, 630 DUNDEE ROAD, NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Asha Collins	director	IDEXX LABORATORIES, INC., ONE IDEXX DRIVE, WESTBROOK ME 04092
M Anne Szostak	director	C/O TUPPERWARE BRANDS CORP, 14901 S ORANGE BLOSSOM TR, ORLANDO FL 32837
Sharon E. Underberg	officer: EVP, GC & Corporate Secretary	EASTMAN KODAK COMPANY, 343 STATE STREET, ROCHESTER NY 14650
Sophie V. Vandebroek	director	6 OAK MEADOW ROAD, LINCOLN MA 01770
Daniel M Junius	director	C/O IMMUNOGEN, INC., 830 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451