Ichor Holdings (Ichor Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Ichor Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ichor Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ichor Holdings (Ichor Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Ichor Holdings Ltd (NAS:ICHR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

4IH:Germany

Address

3185 Laurelview Court, Fremont, CA, USA, 94538

Website

https://www.ichorsystems.com

Ichor Holdings Ltd is engaged in the design, engineering, and manufacturing of critical fluid delivery subsystems and components for semiconductor capital equipment. The product offerings include gas and chemical delivery subsystems, collectively known as fluid delivery subsystems, which are key elements of the process tools used in the manufacturing of semiconductor devices. The company also manufactures machined components, weldments, and proprietary products for use in fluid delivery systems. Geographically, the company operates in the United States of America, Singapore, Europe, and other countries, of which a majority of the revenue is generated from the United States of America.

Executives

Barros Philip Ryan Sr.	officer: Chief Technology Officer	3185 LAUREL VIEW CT., FREMONT CA 94538
Thomas M Rohrs	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	2 RESULTS WAY, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Greg Swyt	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ONTO INNOVATION INC., 16 JONSPIN ROAD, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Christopher Smith	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	3560 BASSETT STREET, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Marc Haugen	director	C/O CEPHEID, 904 CARIBBEAN DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Bruce Ragsdale	officer: Chief Operating Officer	3185 LAURELVIEW CT, FREMONT CA 94538
Jorge Titinger	director	7005 SOUTHFRONT ROAD, LIVERMORE CA 94551
Iain Mackenzie	director	C/O SMART GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC., 39870 EUREKA DRIVE, NEWARK CA 94560
Paul Chhabra	officer: Chief Operating Officer	9255 COVERDALE ROAD, FORT WAYNE IN 46809
Kevin M. Canty	officer: Chief Operating Officer	3185 LAURELVIEW CT., FREMONT CA 94538
Yuval Wasserman	director	1625 SHARP POINT DRIVE, FORT COLLINS CO 80525
Sarah A O'dowd	director	3185 LAURELVIEW COURT, FREMONT CA 94538
Wendy Arienzo	director	5245 HELLYER AVE, SAN JOSE CA 95138
Larry J Sparks	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3185 LAURELVIEW CT, FREMONT CA 94538
Laura A. Black	director	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, BLDG. 1, SUITE 240, MENLO PARK CA 94025