Intercontinental Exchange (Intercontinental Exchange) Predictability Rank

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What is Intercontinental Exchange Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Intercontinental Exchange Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Intercontinental Exchange (Intercontinental Exchange) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Intercontinental Exchange Inc (NYSE:ICE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ICE:Mexico IC2:Germany

Address

5660 New Northside Drive, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30328

Website

https://www.theice.com

Intercontinental Exchange is a vertically integrated operator of financial exchanges and provides ancillary data products. Though the company is probably best known for its ownership of the New York Stock Exchange, which it acquired in 2013, ICE operates a large derivatives exchange, too. The company's largest commodity futures product is the ICE Brent crude futures contract. In addition to the exchanges business, which is about 56% of net revenue, Intercontinental Exchange has used a series of acquisitions to create its mortgage technology business (15% of net revenue) and fixed-income and data services segment (29% of net revenue).

Executives

Jeffrey C Sprecher	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	2100 RIVEREDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30308
Andrew J Surdykowski	officer: General Counsel	5660 NEW NORTHSIDE DRIVE, ATLANTA GA 30328
James W Namkung	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE, INC., 5660 NEW NORTHSIDE DRIVE, NW, ATLANTA GA 30318
Christopher Scott Edmonds	officer: Chief Development Officer	INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE, INC., 5660 NEW NORTHSIDE DR, ATLANTA GA 30328
Warren Gardiner	officer: Chief Financial Officer	INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE, INC., 5660 NEW NORTHSIDE DR, ATLANTA GA 30328
Benjamin Jackson	officer: President	C/O INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE, INC., 5660 NEW NORTHSIDE DRIVE, ATLANTA GA 30328
Douglas Foley	officer: SVP, HR & Administration	INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE, INC., 5660 NEW NORTHSIDE DR, ATLANTA GA 30328
Martha A Tirinnanzi	director	INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE, INC., 5660 NEW NORTHSIDE DR, ATLANTA GA 30328
Stuart Glen Williams	officer: Chief Operating Officer	INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE, INC., 5660 NEW NORTHSIDE DR., ATLANTA GA 30328
William Jefferson Hague	director	C/O ICE, 5660 NEW NORTHSIDE DRIVE, ATLANTA GA 30328
Mark Wassersug	officer: Chief Operating Officer	5660 NEW NORTHSIDE DRIVE, ATLANTA GA 30328
Mayur Kapani	officer: Chief Technology Officer	INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE, INC., 5660 NEW NORTHSIDE DR, ATLANTA GA 30328
David S Goone	officer: Sr VP, Chief Strategic Officer	2100 RIVEREDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30308
Lynn C Martin	officer: President & COO, ICE Data Serv	5660 NEW NORTHSIDE DRIVE, ATLANTA GA 30318
Charles R Crisp	director	1301 MCKINNEY STE 700, HOUSTON TX 77010