IAC (IAC) Predictability Rank

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What is IAC Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

IAC Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

IAC Predictability Rank Related Terms

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IAC (IAC) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » IAC Inc (NAS:IAC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

4LRA:Germany 4LRA:Germany I1AC34:Brazil

Address

555 West 18th Street, New York, NY, USA, 10011

Website

https://www.iac.com

IAC is an internet media company with segments that include Angi (47% of total revenue), Dotdash (10%), search (24%), and emerging and other (19%). The firm spun off the narrow-moat dating app provider Match Group in second-quarter 2020 and the no-moat video software provider Vimeo in second-quarter 2021.

Executives

Erik Bradbury	officer: SVP AND CONTROLLER (CAO)	222 BERKELEY STREET, FLOOR 5, BOSTON MA 02116
Kendall Handler	officer: EVP & CLO	IAC/INTERACTIVECORP, 555 WEST 18TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10011
Michael D Eisner	director	C/O WALT DISNEY CO, 500 S BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521-1010
Westley Moore	director	325 WEST HURON STREET, SUITE 412, CHICAGO IL 60654
Christopher Halpin	officer: EVP & CFO	IAC/INTERACTIVECORP, 555 WEST 18TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10011
Michael H Schwerdtman	officer: SVP and Controller (CAO)	C/O IAC/INTERACTIVECORP, 152 WEST 57TH STREET, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
David S Rosenblatt	director	C/O DOUBLECLICK INC.,, 111 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011
Bryan Lourd	director	C/O CAA, 9830 WILSHIRE BLVD, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Glenn Schiffman	director, officer: EVP & CFO	555 WEST 18TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10011
Gregg Winiarski	director, officer: EVP and GC	IAC/INTERACTIVECORP, 555 WEST 18TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10011
Mark J Stein	officer: EVP & CSO	ONE BRIDGE STREET, SUITE 42, IRVINGTON NY 10069
Bonnie S Hammer	director	30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112
Joseph Levin	officer: CEO	C/O IAC/INTERACTIVECORP, 555 WEST 18TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10011
Richard F Zannino	director	C/O IAC/INTERACTIVECORP, 555 WEST 18TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10011
Alan G Spoon	director	1150 15TH ST NW, WASHINGTON DC 20071