Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (NYSE:HPE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HPE:Mexico 1HPE:Italy 2HP:Germany 2HP:Germany 2HP:Germany 2HP:Germany H1PE34:Brazil

Address

1701 East Mossy Oaks Road, Spring, TX, USA, 77389

Website

https://www.hpe.com

Hewlett Packard Enterprise is an information technology vendor that provides hardware and software to enterprises. Its primary product lines are compute servers, storage arrays, and networking equipment; it also has a high-performance computing business. HPE's stated goal is to be a complete edge-to-cloud company, and its portfolio enables hybrid clouds and hyperconverged infrastructure. It uses a primarily outsourced manufacturing model and employs 60,000 people worldwide.

Executives

Jeremy Cox	officer: SVP Controller and CTO	3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Phil Mottram	officer: President, Intelligent Edge	11445 COMPAQ CENTER DRIVE WEST, HOUSTON TX 77070
Kirt P Karros	officer: SVP, Finance & Treasurer	12400 HIGH BLUFF DR. SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Justin Hotard	officer: SVP, GM, HPC and AI	11445 COMPAQ CENTER DRIVE WEST, HOUSTON TX 77070
Neil B Macdonald	officer: SVP, GM of Compute	6280 AMERICA CENTER DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95002
Fidelma Russo	officer: EVP, GM, HC and CTO	C/O IRON MOUNTAIN INCORPORATED, ONE FEDERAL STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
John F Schultz	officer: EVP, COLO	C/O HEWLETT-PACKARD COMPANY, 3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Gerri Gold	officer: EVP, Pres & CEO Financial Serv	4 INDUSTRIAL WAY WEST, SUITE 300, EATONTOWN NJ 07724
Alan Richard May	officer: EVP, Chief People Officer	3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Antonio F Neri	officer: President and CEO	3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Black Thomas E Jr	officer: SVP, GM of Storage	6280 AMERICA CENTER DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95002
Bethany Mayer	director	C/O IXIA, 26601 W. AGOURA ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91302
Tarek Robbiati	officer: EVP & CFO	6200 SPRINT PARKWAY, OVERLAND PARK KS 66251
Jean M. Hobby	director	10000 WEHRLE DRIVE, CLARENCE NY 14031
Frank A Damelio	director	C/O PFIZER INC., 235 EAST 42ND ST., NEW YORK NY 10017