Robinhood Markets (Robinhood Markets) Predictability Rank

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What is Robinhood Markets Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Robinhood Markets Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Robinhood Markets (Robinhood Markets) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Robinhood Markets Inc (NAS:HOOD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

CFLT TOST PATH DBX NTNX FFIV WEX KVYO DOX CCCS MSFT ORCL ADBE PANW SNPS VMW FTNT CRWD PLTR SQ

Traded in Other Exchanges

HOOD:Mexico 7KY:Germany 7KY:Germany

Address

85 Willow Road, Menlo Park, CA, USA, 94025

Website

https://www.robinhood.com

Robinhood Markets Inc is creating a modern financial services platform. It designs its own products and services and delivers them through a single, app-based cloud platform supported by proprietary technology. Its vertically integrated platform has enabled the introduction of new products and services such as cryptocurrency trading, dividend reinvestment, fractional shares, recurring investments, and IPO Access. It earns transaction-based revenues from routing user orders for options, equities, and cryptocurrencies to market makers when a routed order is executed.

Executives

Baiju Bhatt	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Creative Officer	C/O ROBINHOOD MARKETS, INC., 85 WILLOW ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Vladimir Tenev	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ROBINHOOD MARKETS, INC., 85 WILLOW ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Jason Warnick	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ROBINHOOD MARKETS INC, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O ROBINHOOD MARKETS, INC., 85 WILLOW ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Index Ventures Vi Parallel Entrepreneur Fund (jersey) Lp	director, 10 percent owner	NO. 1 SEATON PLACE, ST. HELIER, CHANNEL ISLANDS Y9 JE48YJ
Steven M. Quirk	officer: Chief Brokerage Officer	C/O ROBINHOOD MARKETS INC., 85 WILLOW ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Scott D Sandell	director, 10 percent owner
Florence Anthony A. Jr.	director, 10 percent owner	5425 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 800, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Mohamad Makhzoumi	director, 10 percent owner	2855 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Meyer Malka	director	364 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Forest Baskett	director, 10 percent owner
Frances X Frei	director	ADVANCE AUTO PARTS, INC., 5008 AIRPORT RD, ROANOKE VA 24012
Gretchen Howard	officer: Chief Operating Officer	707 MENLO AVENUE, SUITE 110, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Oluwadara Johnson Treseder	director	C/O ROBINHOOD MARKETS, INC., 85 WILLOW ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Aparna Chennapragada	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O EBAY, INC., 2025 HAMILTON AVE., SAN JOSE CA 95125