Hilton Worldwide Holdings (Hilton Worldwide Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Hilton Worldwide Holdings (Hilton Worldwide Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (NYSE:HLT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HLT:Mexico HI91:Germany HI91:Germany H1LT34:Brazil

Address

7930 Jones Branch Drive, Suite 1100, McLean, VA, USA, 22102

Website

https://www.hilton.com

Hilton Worldwide Holdings operates 1,127,430 rooms across its 20 plus brands addressing the premium economy scale through luxury segments as of Dec. 31, 2022. Hampton and Hilton are the two largest brands by total room count at 28% and 13%, respectively, as of Dec. 31, 2022. Recent brands launched over the last few years include Home2, Curio, Canopy, Spark, Tru, Tempo, and Project H3. Managed and franchised represent the vast majority of adjusted EBITDA, predominantly from the Americas regions.

Executives

Michael W Duffy	officer: See Remarks	7930 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Anne-marie W D'angelo	officer: See Remarks	801 E. 86TH AVENUE, MERRILLVILLE IN 46410
Kristin Ann Campbell	officer: See Remarks	500 STAPLES DRIVE, FRAMINGHAM MA 01702
Laura Fuentes	officer: See Remarks	7930 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Douglas M Steenland	director	2700 LONE OAK PARKWAY, EAGAN MN 55121
Matthew W Schuyler	officer: See Remarks	1680 CAPITAL ONE DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Raymond E Mabus	director	C/O DANA INCORPORATED, 3939 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, MAUMEE OH 43537
Kevin J Jacobs	officer: See Remarks	7930 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Martin Rinck	officer: See Remarks	7930 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Christopher W Silcock	officer: See Remarks	7930 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Chris Carr	director	7930 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Jonathan W. Witter	officer: See Remarks	1680 CAPITAL ONE DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Ian Russell Carter	officer: See Remarks	HILTON HOTELS CORPORATION, 9336 CIVIC CENTER DRIVE, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210
Hna Tourism Group Co., Ltd.	10 percent owner	HNA BUILDING, NO. 7 GUOXING ROAD, HAIKOU F4 570203
Blackstone Real Estate Associates Vi L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP, 345 PARK AVE., NEW YORK NY 10154