Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Co (Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Co (Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances » Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Co (NYSE:HBB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4421 Waterfront Drive, Glen Allen, VA, USA, 23060

Website

https://www.hamiltonbeachbrands.com

Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Co, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in consumer, commercial and specialty small appliances and specialty retail. It designs, markets, and distributes small branded electric household and specialty housewares small appliances, as well as commercial products for restaurants, bars, and hotels.

Executives

Sarah M Cunningham	officer: Sr. VP Chief Financial Officer	14519 AUGUSTA LANE, ASHLAND X1 23005
Gregory H Trepp	officer: President and CEO	5875 LANDERBROOK DRIVE, SUITE 300, MAYFIELD HEIGHTS OH 44124
Paul Dwinelle Furlow	director	4421 WATERFRONT DR, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Linda Jean Woermer	director, officer: PFO	4421 WATERFRONT DR., GLEN ALLEN VA 33705
Workman Lawrence Kenneth Jr	officer: SVP, GC and Secretary	4421 WATERFRONT DR., GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Butler John C Jr	director, other: Member of a Group	5875 LANDERBROOK DRIVE, SUITE 300, MAYFIELD HEIGHTS OH 44124
Helen Rankin Butler	other: Member of a Group	5875 LANDERBROOK DRIVE, SUITE 300, MAYFIELD HEIGHTS OH 44124
Chloe O Rankin	other: Member of a Group	5875 LANDERBROOK DRIVE, SUITE 300, MAYFIELD HEIGHTS OH 44124
Claiborne R Rankin	other: Member of a Group	5875 LANDERBROOK DRIVE, SUITE 300, MAYFIELD HEIGHTS OH 44124
David B Williams	director	5875 LANDERBROOK DRIVE, SUITE 300, MAYFIELD HEIGHTS OH 44124
Clara R Williams	other: Member of a Group	5875 LANDERBROOK DRIVE, SUITE 300, MAYFIELD HEIGHTS OH 44124
Roger F Rankin	director, other: Member of a Group	C/O NACCO INDUSTRIES INC, 5875 LANDERBROOK DRIVE, MAYFIELD HEIGHTS OH 44124
Rankin Alfred M Et Al	director, officer: Executive Chairman	5875 LANDERBROOK DR, MAYFIELD HEIGHTS OH 44124
Rankin Corbin	other: Member of a Group	5875 LANDERBROOK DRIVE, SUITE 300, MAYFIELD HEIGHTS OH 44124
Alison A Rankin	other: Member of a Group	5875 LANDERBROOK DRIVE, SUITE 300, MAYFIELD HEIGHTS OH 44124