Halliburton Co (Halliburton Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Halliburton Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Halliburton Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Halliburton Co (Halliburton Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Halliburton Co (NYSE:HAL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HAL:Mexico 1HAL:Italy HALd:UK HAL:Germany HAL:Germany HAL:Germany HAL:Germany HAL:Chile HALI34:Brazil HAL:Austria

Address

3000 North Sam Houston Parkway East, Houston, TX, USA, 77032

Website

https://www.halliburton.com

Halliburton is one of the three largest oilfield service firms in the world, offering superior expertise in a number of business lines, including completion fluids, wireline services, cementing, and countless others. It's the largest pressure pumper in North America, and has been a leading innovator in hydraulic fracturing over the past two decades.

Executives

Van H. Beckwith	officer: EVP, Secretary and CLO	3000 NORTH SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY EAST, HOUSTON TX 77032
Myrtle L Jones	officer: Senior Vice Pres - Tax	3000 NORTH SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY E., HOUSTON TX 77032
Jill D. Sharp	officer: SVP Internal Assurance Svcs.	3000 NORTH SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY EAST, HOUSTON TX 77032
Jeffrey Allen Miller	officer: Exec VP & COO	3000 N. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY E., HOUSTON TX 77032
Timothy Mckeon	officer: Vice Pres and Treasurer	3000 NORTH SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY E., HOUSTON TX 77032
Eric Carre	officer: EVP, Global Business Lines	3000 N. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY EAST, HOUSTON TX 77032
Charles Jr. Geer	officer: VP and Corporate Controller	3000 N. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY EAST, PLAZA 2-6211, HOUSTON TX 77032
Jeffrey Shannon Slocum	officer: President - Eastern Hemisphere	3000 NORTH SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY EAST, HOUSTON TX 77032
Maurice S Smith	director	353 N. CLARK STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60654
Janet L Weiss	director	3000 N SAM HOUSTON PKWY E, HOUSTON TX 77032
Margaret Katherine Banks	director	125 SPENCE STREET, SUITE 500, ZACHRY ENGINEERING EDUCATION COMPLEX, COLLEGE STATION TX 77843
Lawrence J Pope	officer: Vice Pres, HR and Admin	3000 NORTH SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY E., HOUSTON TX 77032
Joe D Rainey	officer: Pres., Eastern Hemisphere	EMIRATES TOWER, 13TH FLOOR, SHEIKH ZAYED ROAD, DUBAI C0 00000
Lance Loeffler	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3000 NORTH SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY EAST, HOUSTON TX 77032
Mark Richard	officer: President - Western Hemisphere	3000 NORTH SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY EAST, HOUSTON TX 77032