Global Payments (Global Payments) Predictability Rank

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What is Global Payments Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Global Payments Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Global Payments Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Global Payments (Global Payments) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Global Payments Inc (NYSE:GPN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GPN:Mexico GLO:Germany

Address

3550 Lenox Road, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30326

Website

https://www.globalpaymentsinc.com

Global Payments is a leading provider of payment processing and software solutions and focuses on serving small and midsize merchants. The company operates in 30 countries and generates about one fourth of its revenue from outside North America, primarily in Europe and Asia. In 2019, Global Payments merged with Total System Services in an all-stock deal that gave Total System Services shareholders 48% of the combined company's shares. The merger added issuer processing operations.

Executives

M Troy Woods	director	ONE TSYS WAY, COLUMBUS GA 31901
Baldwin Robert H B Jr	director	C/O HEARTLAND PAYMENT SYSTEMS, INC., 90 NASSAU STREET, PRINCETON NJ 08542
David M Sheffield	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	10 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NORTH TOWER, ATLANTA GA 30328
David Lawrence Green	officer: EVP and General Counsel	1431 FAIRVIEW ROAD NE, ATLANTA GA 30306
Kirsten Marie Kliphouse	director	531 SOUTH SPRING STREET, BURLINGTON NC 27215
Joshua J Whipple	officer: Senior Executive VP and CFO	3550 LENOX ROAD NE, ATLANTA GA 30326
Guido Francesco Sacchi	officer: EVP and CIO	533 ORME CIRCLE NE, ATLANTA GA 30306
Andrea M Carter	officer: Senior Executive VP and CHRO	600 N. HURSTBOURNE PARKWAY, SUITE 400, LOUISVILLE KY 40222
Jeffrey Steven Sloan	director, officer: CEO	5048 NORTHSIDE DRIVE, ATLANTA GA 30327
John G Bruno	director
Sla Ii Galaxy Gp, L.l.c.	director	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2776 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sla Ii Galaxy Holdings, L.p.	director	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2776 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Slp Galaxy Co-invest, L.p.	director	2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sla Ii Galaxy Aggregator, L.p.	director	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2776 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Silver Lake Group, L.l.c.	director	2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025