Gaming and Leisure Properties (Gaming and Leisure Properties) Predictability Rank

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What is Gaming and Leisure Properties Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gaming and Leisure Properties Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Gaming and Leisure Properties (Gaming and Leisure Properties) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc (NAS:GLPI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2GL:Germany

Address

845 Berkshire Boulevard, Suite 200, Wyomissing, PA, USA, 19610

Website

https://www.glpropinc.com

Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc, or GLP, is a real estate investment property trust primarily involved in the leasing of gaming and related facilities to wholly-owned subsidiaries of Penn National Gaming, or Penn, throughout the U.S. GLP segments its operations into GLP Capital and TRS Properties divisions. The company derives the vast majority of its revenue from its GLP Capital unit in the form of rental income from dockside and land-based casinos located mostly in the American Midwest. Almost all of GLP Capital's leases are long-term agreements that give Penn the option for future extensions. Gaming revenue generated by TRS Properties, which encompasses the operations of Hollywood Casino Perryville and Hollywood Casino Baton Rouge, also represents a significant income stream for GLP.

Executives

Steven Ladany	officer: SVP Chief Development Officer	845 BERKSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 200, WYOMISSING PA 19610
Brandon John Moore	officer: SVP & General Counsel	845 BERKSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 200, WYOMISSING PA 19610
Matthew Demchyk	officer: SVP, Investments	845 BERKSHIRE BOULEVARD, WYOMISSING PA 19610
Desiree A. Burke	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	845 BERKSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 200, WYOMISSING PA 19610
Barry F Schwartz	director	35 EAST 62ND ST, NEW YORK NY 10021
E Scott Urdang	director	845 BERKSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 200, WYOMISSING PA 19610
Joanne A. Epps	director, Director	C/O PENN, REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST, THE BELLEVUE, 200 S. BROAD STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19102
Earl C Shanks	director	CONVERGYS CORPORATION, 201 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Peter M Carlino	director, officer: CEO & President	845 BERKSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 200, WYOMISSING PA 19610
Carol Lynton	director	C/O EL POLLO HOLDINGS, INC., 3535 HARBOR BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Marshall Joseph W Iii	director	500 OFFICE CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 400, FT. WASHINGTON PA 19034
David A Handler	director	845 BERKSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 200, WYOMISSING PA 19610
William J Clifford	officer: CFO, Sec. & Treas.	845 BERKSHIRE BLVD. SUITE 200, WYOMISSING PA 19610
James Perry	director
Steven T. Snyder	officer: SR VP-Corp Development	845 BERKSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 200, WYOMISSING PA 19610