GATX (GATX) Predictability Rank

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What is GATX Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

GATX Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

GATX Predictability Rank Related Terms

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GATX (GATX) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » GATX Corp (NYSE:GATX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GAX:Germany GAX:Germany

Address

233 South Wacker Drive, Chicago, IL, USA, 60606-7147

Website

https://www.gatx.com

GATX Corp is a provider of railcar leasing and maintenance services. GATX operates four business segments: rail North America, rail international, and portfolio management. The rail business offers railcar leasing and maintenance, as well as asset-related, financial, and management services. The company owns and leases fleets in North America, Europe, and Asia, which consist of tank and freight railcars. Industries served to include refining and petroleum, chemicals and plastics, railroads and other transportation, mining, and food and agriculture.

Executives

John Sbragia	officer: SVP, Engineering and Quality	233 S. WACKER DR., CHICAGO IL 60606
Kevin Hillesland	officer: SVP, Structured Finance	233 S. WACKER DR., CHICAGO IL 60606
Geoffrey Phillips	officer: Sr. VP, Operations	233 S. WACKER DR., CHICAGO IL 60606
Shelley J Bausch	director	15710 JOHN F. KENNEDY BLVD., SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77032
Aken Jennifer Van	officer: SVP, Treas. & Chief Risk Off.	GATX CORPORATION, 233 S. WACKER DR., CHICAGO IL 60606
Jennifer Mcmanus	officer: Sr. VP & Controller	C/O GATX CORPORATION, 233 S. WACKER DR., CHICAGO IL 60606
Paul F Titterton	officer: VP & Chief Commercial Officer	222 W. ADAMS ST., CHICAGO IL 60606
Robert C Lyons	officer: VP - Investor Relations	500 WEST MONROE ST, CHICAGO IL 60661
Jeffery R. Young	officer: Vice President, Tax	222 W. ADAMS ST., CHICAGO IL 60606
Thomas A. Ellman	officer: EVP & Pres., Rail N. America	222 W. ADAMS ST., CHICAGO IL 60606
Brian L Glassberg	officer: EVP, General Counsel & Secy.	GATX CORPORATION, 233 S. WACKER DR., CHICAGO IL 60606
Deborah A Golden	officer: Sr. VP, Gen. Couns. & Sec'y	500 WEST MONROE STREET, CHICAGO IL 60661
Brian A Kenney	director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	GATX CORP, 500 WEST MONROE STREET, CHICAGO IL 60661
Necati Gokce Tezel	officer: Sr. VP and Pres., Rail Intl.	222 W. ADAMS ST., CHICAGO IL 60606
Robert Zmudka	officer: Sr. VP & Chief Comm. Off.	222 W. ADAMS ST., CHICAGO IL 60606