Flywire (Flywire) Predictability Rank

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What is Flywire Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Flywire Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Flywire (Flywire) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Flywire Corp (NAS:FLYW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

STNE BOX APPN VRNS DAVA SQSP RPD EEFT HCP ESMT MSFT ORCL ADBE PANW SNPS VMW FTNT CRWD PLTR SQ

Traded in Other Exchanges

9E2:Germany

Address

141 Tremont Street, Suite 10, Boston, MA, USA, 02111

Website

https://www.flywire.com

Flywire Corp provides a secure global payments platform, offering its clients an innovative and streamlined process to receive reconciled domestic and international payments in a more cost-effective and efficient manner. The company's solutions are built on three core elements namely a payments platform; a proprietary global payment network and vertical-specific software backed by its deep industry expertise. Geographically, the majority of revenue is from the Americas.

Executives

Michael G Ellis	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O FLYWIRE CORPORATION, 141 TREMONT STREET, SUITE 10, BOSTON MA 02111
Peter Butterfield	officer: General Counsel and CCO	C/O FLYWIRE CORPORATION, 141 TREMONT STREET, SUITE 10, BOSTON MA 02111
Rob Orgel	officer: President and COO	C/O FLYWIRE CORPORATION, 141 TREMONT STREET, SUITE 10, BOSTON MA 02111
Michael Massaro	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O FLYWIRE CORPORATION, 141 TREMONT STREET, SUITE 10, BOSTON MA 02111
David R. King	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O FLYWIRE CORPORATION, 141 TREMONT STREET, SUITE 10, BOSTON MA 02111
Gretchen Howard	director	707 MENLO AVENUE, SUITE 110, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Matthew C Harris	director, 10 percent owner	1 BANK STREET, 2ND FLOOR, WILLIAMSTOWN MA 01267
Edwin J Santos	director	234 MOURNING DOVE DRIVE, SAUNDERSTOWN RI 02874
Bain Capital Venture Investors, Llc	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Bain Capital Venture Coinvestment Fund Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Enrique T Salem	10 percent owner	SYMANTEC CORPORATION, 20330 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., CUPERTINO CA 95014
Ajay Agarwal	10 percent owner	C/O BAIN CAPITAL VENTURE INVESTORS, LLC, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Alex Finkelstein	director, 10 percent owner	C/O WAYFAIR INC, 4 COPLEY PLACE, 7TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Phillip John Riese	director	2851 WEST KATHLEEN ROAD, PHOENIX AZ 85053
Diane E Offereins	director	2500 LAKE COOK ROAD, RIVERWOODS IL 60015