FedEx (FDX) Predictability Rank

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What is FedEx Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FedEx Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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FedEx (FDX) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » FedEx Corp (NYSE:FDX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FDX:Peru FDX:Mexico 1FDX:Italy FDX:Germany FDX:Germany FDX:Germany FDX:Germany FDXB34:Brazil FDX:Argentina

Address

942 South Shady Grove Road, Memphis, TN, USA, 38120

Website

https://www.fedex.com

FedEx pioneered overnight delivery in 1973 and remains the world's largest express package provider. In its fiscal 2023, which ended May 2023, FedEx derived 47% of revenue from its express division, 37% from ground, and 11% from freight, its asset-based less-than-truckload shipping segment. The remainder comes from other services, including FedEx Office, which provides document production/shipping, and FedEx Logistics, which provides global forwarding. FedEx acquired Dutch parcel delivery firm TNT Express in 2016. TNT was previously the fourth-largest global parcel delivery provider.

Executives

John W Dietrich	officer: EVP CHIEF FINANCIAL OFF
Amy B Lane	director	1626 EAST JEFFERSON ST, ROCKVILLE MD 20852
Erwin Guy M Ii	officer: STAFF VP INT PRIN ACCT OFFICER	942 S SHADY GROVE ROAD, MEMPHIS TN 38120
Jennifer L Johnson	officer: CVP PRIN ACCT OFFICER	942 S. SHADY GROVE ROAD, MEMPHIS TN 38120
Michael C. Lenz	officer: EVP CHIEF FINANCIAL OFF	942 S. SHADY GROVE ROAD, MEMPHIS TN 38120
Robert B Carter	officer: EVP CHIEF INFO OFFICER	942 S SHADY GROVE RD, MEMPHIS TN 38120
Tracy B Brightman	officer: EVP - Chief People Officer	942 S SHADY GROVE ROAD, MEMPHIS TN 38120
Stephen E Gorman	director	370 KNOLLWOOD STREET, SUITE 500, WINSTON SALEM NC 27103
Susan C Schwab	director	2101 VAN MUNCHING HALL, COLLEGE PARK MD 20742
Richard W Smith	officer: President/CEO FedEx Express	3610 HACKS CROSS ROAD, BUILDING A 3RD FLOOR, MEMPHIS TN 38125
Frederick W Smith	director, officer: CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD	942 S SHADY GROVE RD, MEMPHIS TN 38120
Brie Carere	officer: EVP/Chief Mkt & Comm Officer	942 S. SHADY GROVE ROAD, MEMPHIS TN 38120
David P Steiner	director	1001 FANNIN ST, STE 4000, HOUSTON TX 77002
R Brad Martin	director
Paul S Walsh	director	8 HENRIETTA PLACE, LONDON X0 94111