Enphase Energy (Enphase Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Enphase Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Enphase Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Enphase Energy (Enphase Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Enphase Energy Inc (NAS:ENPH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ENPH:Mexico E0P:Germany E0P:Germany ENPH:Austria

Address

47281 Bayside Parkway, Fremont, CA, USA, 94538

Website

https://www.enphase.com

Enphase Energy is a global energy technology company. The company delivers smart, easy-to-use solutions that manage solar generation, storage, and communication on one platform. The company's microinverter technology primarily serves the rooftop solar market and produces a fully integrated solar-plus-storage solution. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States.

Executives

Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman	officer: President & CEO	ENPHASE ENERGY INC., 1420 NORTH MCDOWELL BLVD, PETALUMA CA 94954
Thurman J Rodgers	director	535 EASTVIEW WAY, WOODSIDE CA 94062
David A Ranhoff	officer: VP & Chief Commercial Officer	MEMC ELECTRONIC MATERIALS, 501 PEARL DRIVE, ST. PETERS MO 63366
Richard Mora	director	C/O LANDIS+GYR, 30000 MILL CREEK AVE, SUITE 3022, ALPHARETTA GA 30022
Mandy Yang	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O ENPHASE ENERGY, INC., 47281 BAYSIDE PARKWAY, FREMONT CA 94538
Jeff Mcneil	officer: Chief Operating Officer	47281 BAYSIDE PARKWAY, FREMONT CA 94538
Joseph Ian Malchow	director	C/O ENPHASE ENERGY, 47281 BAYSIDE PARKWAY, FREMONT CA 94538
Steven J Gomo	director	495 E. JAVA DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Benjamin John Kortlang	director, 10 percent owner	2750 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Eric Branderiz	officer: VP & Chief Financial Officer	915 DEGUIGNE DRIVE, PO BOX 3453, SUNNYVALE CA 94088-3453
Jamie Elizabeth Haenggi	director	1501 YAMATO ROAD, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Moreno Isidoro Quiroga	10 percent owner	VENIDA PRESIDENTE RIESCO 5711 OFICINA 16, LAS CONDES, SANTIAGO F3 7550000
South Lake One Llc	10 percent owner	250 WEST 55TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
John Howard Weber	director	600 CORPORATION DRIVE, PENDLETON IN 46064
Humberto Garcia	officer: VP and CFO	1420 N. MCDOWELL BLVD., PETALUMA CA 94954