What is Elanco Animal Health Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Elanco Animal Health Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Elanco Animal Health (Elanco Animal Health) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2500 Innovation Way, Greenfield, IN, USA, 46140
Elanco Animal Health Inc is an animal health company that is engaged in innovating, developing, manufacturing, and marketing products for companion and food animals. Geographically, the company's operations are conducted globally and sell its products in over 90 countries. It offers a range of food animal products used in cattle, sheep, goats, and swine production.
Executives
| Grace Mcardle |
officer: EVP, MANUFACTURING AND QUALITY |
2500 INNOVATION WAY, GREENFIELD IN 46140 |
| Timothy J Bettington |
officer: See remarks |
C/O ZOETIS INC., 10 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054 |
| R David Hoover |
director |
C/O EDGEWELL PERSONAL CARE COMPANY, 1350 TIMBERLAKE MANOR PARKWAY, CHESTERFIELD MO 63017 |
| Jeffrey N Simmons |
director, officer: Pres., Chief Executive Officer |
2500 INNOVATION WAY, GREENFIELD IN 46140 |
| John P Bilbrey |
director |
|
| Rajeev A. Modi |
officer: See Remarks |
2500 INNOVATION WAY, GREENFIELD IN 46140 |
| Paul Herendeen |
director |
C/O BAUSCH HEALTH COMPANIES INC., 400 SOMERSET CORPORATE BLVD., BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807 |
| Michael J Harrington |
director |
LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285 |
| Brabander Ellen De |
officer: See Remarks |
2500 INNOVATION WAY, GREENFIELD IN 46140 |
| Marcela A. Kirberger |
officer: Ex VP, Gen Counsel & Corp Sec |
C/O ELANCO ANIMAL HEALTH INCORPORATED, 2500 INNOVATION WAY, GREENFIELD IN 46140 |
| Art A Garcia |
director |
11690 N.W. 105TH STREET, MIAMI FL 33178 |
| William F Doyle |
director |
|
| Uncas Gp Llc |
director |
250 WEST 55TH STREET, 34TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Sachem Head Capital Management Lp |
director |
250 WEST 55TH STREET, 34TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Scott D. Ferguson |
director |
250 WEST 55TH STREET, 34TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
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