Ecolab (Ecolab) Predictability Rank

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What is Ecolab Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ecolab Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ecolab (Ecolab) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Ecolab Inc (NYSE:ECL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ECL:Mexico ECJ:Germany ECJ:Germany

Address

1 Ecolab Place, Saint Paul, MN, USA, 55102

Website

https://www.ecolab.com

Ecolab produces and markets cleaning and sanitation products for the industrial manufacturing, hospitality, healthcare, and life sciences markets. The firm is the global market share leader in this category with a wide array of products and services, including dish and laundry washing systems, pest control, and infection control products. Additionally, Ecolab sells customized water management solutions across its end markets. The company has a strong hold on the U.S. market and is growing its presence abroad.

Executives

Laurie M Marsh	officer: Senior VP - Human Resources	1601 W. DIEHL ROAD, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
David Maclennan	director	14701 CHARLSON ROAD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347
Nicholas J. Alfano	officer: EVP & PRES - GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL	1 ECOLAB PLACE, SAINT PAUL MN 55102
Angela M Busch	officer: SVP - Corporate Development	1 ECOLAB PLACE, SAINT PAUL MN 55102
Gregory B Cook	officer: EVP & PRES - INST GROUP	1 ECOLAB PLACE, SAINT PAUL MN 55102
Nicolas A Granucci	officer: EVP & PRES - GLOBAL PEST	1 ECOLAB PLACE, SAINT PAUL MN 55102
Larry L Berger	officer: Chief Technical Officer & SVP	1 ECOLAB PLACE, SAINT PAUL MN 55102
Arthur J Higgins	director	C/O ZIMMER, INC., P.O. BOX 708, WARSAW IN 46580
Gail Peterson	officer: SVP - Global Mktg & Comms	1 ECOLAB PLACE, SAINT PAUL MN 55102
Christophe Beck	officer: Executive V.P., Instit. NA	370 WABASHA STREET NORTH, SAINT PAUL MN 55102
Eric Mark Green	director	530 HERMAN O. WEST DRIVE, EXTON PA 19341
Gates William H Iii	10 percent owner	2365 CARILLON POINT, KIRKLAND WA 98033
Michael C. Mccormick	officer: Ex.VP, GC & Asst. Secretary	1 ECOLAB PLACE, ST. PAUL MN 55102
Lanesha Minnix	officer: EVP, GC & SECRETARY	TWO LAKESIDE COMMONS, BUILDING TWO, 980 HAMMOND DRIVE, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30328
Tracy B Mckibben	director	100 RIVERSIDE BOULEVARD, #3S, NEW YORK NY 10069