Duluth Holdings (Duluth Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Duluth Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Duluth Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Duluth Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Duluth Holdings (Duluth Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Duluth Holdings Inc (NAS:DLTH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

201 East Front Street, Mount Horeb, WI, USA, 53572

Website

https://www.duluthtrading.com

Duluth Holdings Inc is an apparel brand in the United States. The company offers shirts, pants, and casual wear for men and women under brands like Alaskan Hardgear, Armachillo, Ballroom, Cab Commander, Crouch Gusset, Dry on the Fly, Duluth Trading Co, Duluthflex, Fire Hose, Longtail T, No Polo Shirt, No Yank and Wild Boar Mocs. It operates in a single operating segment.

Executives

Jennifer A Hannon	10 percent owner	ONE E MAIN STREET, UNIT 500, MADISON WI 53703
Janet H Kennedy	director	KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN, PO BOX 219335, KANSAS CITY MO 64121
Ronald Robinson	director	201 E. FRONT STREET, MT. HOREB WI 53572
Brett Lee Paschke	director	150 N RIVERSIDE, WILLIAM BLAIR & COMPANY, CHICAGO IL 60606
Albert J. Sutera	officer: SVP, CTO & Logistics	3308 N. MITTHOEFFER ROAD, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46235
Susan J Riley	director
Neala Shepherd	officer: SVP, Customer Experience	201 EAST FRONT STREET, MOUNT HOREB WI 53572
Stephen L. Schlecht	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman	5348 COUNTY ROAD M, WAUNAKEE WI 53597
Samuel M Sato	officer: President & CEO	201 EAST FRONT STREET, MOUNT HOREB WI 53572
Brenda I Morris	director	6300 MERRILL CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE B, EVERETT WA 98203
David Homolka	officer: SVP HR,Retail&Call Center Oper	201 EAST FRONT STREET, MOUNT HOREB WI 53572
Richard W Schlecht	officer: SVPProd Dev,Vis.Merch&Creative	201 EAST FRONT STREET, MOUNT HOREB WI 53572
Christopher Teufel	officer: SVP IT and Supply Chain	201 EAST FRONT STREET, MOUNT HOREB WI 53572
David Loretta	officer: SVP and CFO	C/O NORDSTROM, INC., 1700 SEVENTH AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98101
Michael John Murphy	officer: V.P., Chief Accounting Officer	401 CHARMANY DRIVE, MADISON WI 53719