D.R. Horton (D.R. Horton) Predictability Rank

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What is D.R. Horton Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

D.R. Horton Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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D.R. Horton (D.R. Horton) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Homebuilding & Construction » D.R. Horton Inc (NYSE:DHI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HO2:Germany HO2:Germany D1HI34:Brazil

Address

1341 Horton Circle, Arlington, TX, USA, 76011

Website

https://www.drhorton.com

D.R. Horton is a leading homebuilder in the United States with operations in 118 markets across 33 states. D.R. Horton mainly builds single-family detached homes (over 90% of home sales revenue) and offers products to entry-level, move-up, luxury buyers, and active adults. The company offers homebuyers mortgage financing and title agency services through its financial services segment. D.R. Horton's headquarters are in Arlington, Texas, and it manages six regional segments across the United States.

Executives

Aron M. Odom	officer: VP, Controller and PAO	1341 HORTON CIRCLE, ARLINGTON TX 76011
Bradley S Anderson	director	1361 HORTON CIRCLE, ARLINGTON TX 76011
Barbara K Allen	director	1361 HORTON CIRCLE, ARLINGTON TX 76011
Michael R Buchanan	director	1341 HORTON CIRCLE, ARLINGTON TX 76011
Bill W Wheat	director, officer: EVP and CFO	1361 HORTON CIRCLE, ARLINGTON TX 76011
Paul J Romanowski	officer: EVP and COO	1341 HORTON CIRCLE, ARLINGTON TX 76011
Michael J Murray	officer: EVP and COO	1361 HORTON CIRCLE, ARLINGTON TX 76011
Michael W Hewatt	director	1361 HORTON CIRCLE, ARLINGTON TX 76011
David V Auld	officer: EVP and COO	1361 HORTON CIRCLE, ARLINGTON TX 76011
Benjamin Sr Carson	director	PO BOX 3599, BATTLE CREEK MI 49016-3599
Maribess L Miller	director	2711 N. HASKELL AVENUE, SUITE 2300, DALLAS TX 75204
Donald R Horton	director, officer: Chairman	1361 HORTON CIRCLE, ARLINGTON TX 76011
Donald J Tomnitz	director, officer: President and CEO	2221 E. LAMAR BLVD., SUITE 790, ARLINGTON TX 76006
Stacey Dwyer	officer: EVP and Treasurer	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 500, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Bobby G Scott	director	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 500, FORT WORTH TX 76102