Donegal Group (Donegal Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Donegal Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Donegal Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Donegal Group (Donegal Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Donegal Group Inc (NAS:DGICA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DGICB:USA

Address

1195 River Road, P.O. Box 302, Marietta, PA, USA, 17547-0302

Website

https://www.donegalgroup.com

Donegal Group Inc is an insurance holding company that offers personal and commercial lines of property and casualty insurance to businesses and individuals. The company's reportable segments are its Investment function, Personal lines of insurance, Commercial lines of insurance. Personal lines products consist primarily of homeowners and private passenger automobile policies. The Commercial lines products of its insurance subsidiaries consist primarily of commercial automobile, commercial multi-peril, and workers' compensation policies. The group primarily operates in the United States.

Executives

Donegal Mutual Insurance Co	10 percent owner	1195 RIVER ROAD, MARIETTA PA 17547
Long Robert Richard Jr	officer: Sr.VP, General Counsel	1195 RIVER ROAD, P.O. BOX 302, MARIETTA PA 17547
William Daniel Delamater	officer: Senior Vice President	1195 RIVER ROAD, P.O. BOX 302, MARIETTA PA 17547
Sanjay Pandey	officer: Sr. VP & Chief Info Officer	1195 RIVER ROAD, P.O. BOX 302, MARIETTA PA 17547
Christina Marie Hoffman	officer: Sr. VP & Chief Risk Officer	1195 RIVER ROAD, P.O. BOX 302, MARIETTA PA 17547
Vincent Anthony Viozzi	officer: Sr. VP & Chief Inv Officer	1195 RIVER ROAD, P.O. BOX 302, MARIETTA PA 17547
Scott Andrew Berlucchi	director	1195 RIVER ROAD, P.O. BOX 302, MARIETTA PA 17547
Jon Marshall Mahan	director	1195 RIVER ROAD, MARIETTA PA 17547
Wampler Richard D Ii	director	1195 RIVER ROAD, MARIETTA PA 17547
Kevin Gerard Burke	director, officer: President & Chief Exec Officer	1195 RIVER ROAD, P.O. BOX 302, MARIETTA PA 17547
Moore Sewell Trezevant Jr	director	LUMINENT MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC, 909 MONTGOMERY STREET SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94133
Jeffrey Dean Miller	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	1195 RIVER ROAD, MARIETTA PA 17547
Jack Lee Hess	director	1195 RIVER ROAD, MARIETTA PA 17547
Daniel J Wagner	officer: Treasurer	1195 RIVER ROAD, MARIETTA PA 17547
David Wayne Sponic	officer: Senior Vice President	1195 RIVER ROAD, P.O. BOX 302, MARIETTA PA 17547