Dropbox (Dropbox) Predictability Rank

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What is Dropbox Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dropbox Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Dropbox Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Dropbox (Dropbox) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Dropbox Inc (NAS:DBX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DBX:Mexico 1Q5:Germany 1Q5:Germany 1Q5:Germany DBX:Austria

Address

1800 Owens Street, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94158

Website

https://www.dropbox.com

Dropbox is a leading provider of cloud-storage and content collaboration tools with an emphasis on individuals and SMB. The company was founded in 2007 and was a pioneer in cloud storage and cross-platform file syncing. Utilizing inorganic and organic means, the firm has been working on diversifying its product mix and pivoting away from the cloud-storage space.

Executives

Bart Volkmer	officer: General Counsel	333 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Timothy Regan	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	333 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Andrew Houston	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	333 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Karen Peacock	director	C/O DROPBOX, INC., 1800 OWENS STREET, SUITE 200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Lisa M Campbell	director	C/O DOLBY LABORATORIES INC., 1275 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Timothy H. Young	officer: Sr Vice President and GM, Core	C/O DROPBOX, INC., 1800 OWENS STREET, SUITE 200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Abhay Parasnis	director	345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Sara Mathew	director	CAMPBELL SOUP COMPANY, ONE CAMPBELL PLACE, CAMDEN NJ 08103
Mylod Robert J Jr	director
Michael Seibel	director	C/O DROPBOX, INC., 1800 OWENS STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Ajay Vashee	officer: Chief Financial Officer	333 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Donald W Blair	director	ONE RIVERFRONT PLAZA, CORNING NY 14831
Arash Ferdowsi	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Founder	111 PINE STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Olivia Nottebohm	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O DROPBOX. INC., 1800 OWENS STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Quentin Clark	officer: See Remarks	333 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107