Darling Ingredients (Darling Ingredients) Predictability Rank

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What is Darling Ingredients Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Darling Ingredients Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Darling Ingredients (Darling Ingredients) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Darling Ingredients Inc (NYSE:DAR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DAR:Mexico 43D:Germany 43D:Germany D2AR34:Brazil

Address

5601 N MacArthur Boulevard, Irving, TX, USA, 75038

Website

https://www.darlingii.com

Darling Ingredients Inc develops and manufactures sustainable ingredients for customers in the pharmaceutical, food, pet food, fuel, and fertilizer industries. It collects and transforms all aspects of animal by-product streams into ingredients, including gelatin, fats, proteins, pet food ingredients, fertilizers, and other specialty products. Also, the company recovers and converts used cooking oil and bakery remnants into feed and fuel ingredients. Darling has three primary business segments: feed ingredients (the majority of revenue), food ingredients, and fuel ingredients. It provides grease trap services for food businesses and sells various equipment for collecting and delivering cooking oil. The company derives the majority of its revenue from customers in North America.

Executives

Joseph Manzi	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	5601 N. MACARTHUR BLVD., IRVING TX 75038
Robert W Day	officer: EVP Chief Strategy Officer	5601 N. MACARTHUR BLVD, IRVING TX 75038
Matthew J Jansen	officer: COO North America	C/O DARLING INGREDIENTS INC., 5601 N. MACARTHUR BLVD, IRVING TX 75038
Patrick Mcnutt	officer: EVP Chief Admin Officer	5601 N. MACARTHUR BLVD, IRVING TX 75038
Charles L Adair	director	251 O'CONNOR RIDGE BLVD., SUITE 300, IRVING TX 75038
John Bullock	officer: EVP Chief Strategy Officer	251 O'CONNOR RIDGE BLVD., SUITE 300, IRVING TX 75038
Randall C Stuewe	director, officer: Chairman and CEO
Van Der Velden Jan	officer: EVP Int Rendering&Specialties	251 O'CONNOR RIDGE BLVD, SUITE 300, IRVING TX 75038
Gary W. Mize	director	GEVO, INC., 345 INVERNESS DRIVE SOUTH, BUILDING C, SUITE 310, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Brandon Lairmore	officer: EVP US Rendering Operations	4221 E. ALEXANDRIA PIKE, COLD SPRING KY 41076
Larry Barden	director	5601 N. MACARTHUR BLVD, IRVING TX 75038
Enderson Guimaraes	director	PEPSICO, INC., 700 ANDERSON HILL ROAD, PURCHASE NY 10577
Celeste A. Clark	director	C/O ADVANCEPIERRE FOODS HOLDINGS, INC., 9987 CARVER ROAD, BLUE ASH OH 45242
Kurt Stoffel	director	5601 N. MACARTHUR BLVD, IRVING TX 75038
Elizabeth Albright	director	C/O THE CHEMOURS COMPANY, 1007 MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19898