Clearwater Analytics Holdings (Clearwater Analytics Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Clearwater Analytics Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Clearwater Analytics Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Clearwater Analytics Holdings (Clearwater Analytics Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Clearwater Analytics Holdings Inc (NYSE:CWAN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

777 W. Main Street, Suite 900, Boise, ID, USA, 83702

Website

https://www.clearwateranalytics.com

Clearwater Analytics Holdings Inc provides a SaaS solution for automated investment data aggregation, reconciliation, accounting and reporting services to insurers, investment managers, corporations, institutional investors and government entities. The majority of the revenue is earned in the United States.

Executives

Sandeep Sahai	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CLEARWATER ANALYTICS HOLDINGS, INC., 777 W. MAIN STREET, SUITE 900, BOISE ID 83702
James S Cox	officer: Chief Financial Officer	600 TOWNSEND, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Souvik Das	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O CLEARWATER ANALYTICS HOLDINGS, INC., 777 W. MAIN STREET, SUITE 900, BOISE ID 83702
Wcas Xii Carbon Analytics Acquisition, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WELSH, CARSON, ANDERSON & STOWE, 599 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Warburg Pincus Llc	director, 10 percent owner	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Galibier Purchaser, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	C/O PERMIRA ADVISERS LLC, 320 PARK AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Subi Sethi	officer: Chief Client Officer	C/O CLEARWATER ANALYTICS HOLDINGS, INC., 777 W. MAIN STREET, SUITE 900, BOISE ID 83702
Scott Stanley Erickson	officer: See Remarks	C/O CLEARWATER ANALYTICS HOLDINGS, INC., 777 W. MAIN STREET, SUITE 900, BOISE ID 83702
Durable Capital Partners Lp	10 percent owner	4747 BETHESDA AVENUE, SUITE #1002, BETHESDA MD 20814
James Douglas Price	officer: Chief Quality Officer	C/O CLEARWATER ANALYTICS HOLDINGS, INC., 777 W. MAIN STREET, SUITE 900, BOISE ID 83702
Gayatri Raman	officer: President, Europe and Asia	C/O CLEARWATER ANALYTICS HOLDINGS, INC., 777 W. MAIN STREET, SUITE 900, BOISE ID 83702
Joseph Morris Kochansky	officer: See Remarks	C/O CLEARWATER ANALYTICS HOLDINGS, INC., 777 W. MAIN STREET, SUITE 900, BOISE ID 83702
D Scott Mackesy	director	320 PARK AVENUE STE 2500, NEW YORK NY 10022
Cynthia Ann Blendu	officer: See Remarks	C/O CLEARWATER ANALYTICS HOLDINGS, INC., 777 W. MAIN STREET, SUITE 900, BOISE ID 83702
Alphonse Valbrune	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O CLEARWATER ANALYTICS HOLDINGS, INC., 777 W. MAIN STREET, SUITE 900, BOISE ID 83702